Based on the complexion of the market and weight of evidence of the market structure I continue to look for downward pressure.
I will be in this position up to this Friday; however, may choose to exit within 1-2 days.
Speaking of Friday: Friday, June 10th CPI Expectations.
I'm expecting to see a 1.6% increase for the month of May, which will all but destroy the narrative by the Fed that inflation is coming down and the worst is behind us.
Based on the M2 Money Supply and correlating that with money growth, GDP, and a new element total debt of the economy -- there is a tight correlation al the way back to the 1960's with these new formulations.
CPI is understating by ~ 10% which means we "should" be seeing further price increases in price inflation.
I do not believe we see the inflation peak until early 2023 where that would peak around 10.6%. I believe the Weight of the Evidence is Statistically on my side that we have not seen the end of price inflation.
This might push that barrel price of oil up above the $135 a barrel and push gasoline prices even higher.
The downward pressure goes for the high bets tech sector. If you go to the Facebook link (below and in my profile) you'll find some additional charts and annotations.
In Bear Markets, the weight of the evidence is when the bulls are unable to maintain and sustain market sentiment when the markets gap-up and they fail to control the narrative.
I will be in this position up to this Friday; however, may choose to exit within 1-2 days.
Speaking of Friday: Friday, June 10th CPI Expectations.
I'm expecting to see a 1.6% increase for the month of May, which will all but destroy the narrative by the Fed that inflation is coming down and the worst is behind us.
Based on the M2 Money Supply and correlating that with money growth, GDP, and a new element total debt of the economy -- there is a tight correlation al the way back to the 1960's with these new formulations.
CPI is understating by ~ 10% which means we "should" be seeing further price increases in price inflation.
I do not believe we see the inflation peak until early 2023 where that would peak around 10.6%. I believe the Weight of the Evidence is Statistically on my side that we have not seen the end of price inflation.
This might push that barrel price of oil up above the $135 a barrel and push gasoline prices even higher.
The downward pressure goes for the high bets tech sector. If you go to the Facebook link (below and in my profile) you'll find some additional charts and annotations.
In Bear Markets, the weight of the evidence is when the bulls are unable to maintain and sustain market sentiment when the markets gap-up and they fail to control the narrative.