MSFT has a lot going for it, it's a great company and they have great products. I understand holding MSFT, however, cannot get past the multiples and cannot fathom how anyone could be buying at these current levels.
Look, I get it, all the crypto bros are now AI bros and they're racking up huge bills in Azure training their own ChatGPT wrappers so they can deploy their one-of-five-hundred new chat apps. Yes, MSFT said that AI represented about 3% of revenue last quarter but they didn't elaborate on what rate of change that was from last year; AI is not new and it's more mature brother, ML, is likely being globbed into the revenue mix to paint a better picture.
Don't get me wrong, I'm on the AI hype train. I'm just now on the bullet train that is MSFT. Slowing cloud growth, a highly saturated cloud market... even with significant AI spend growth over the next 3-5 years I cannot get to the point where MSFT is worth 35+ PE today. Fundamentally my napkin math doesn't add up. Either I'm a monkey or the market is chasing after FOMO. To be clear, I think that MSFT will be worth 370 in 3-4 years, it's just the risk to open a new position and to have my money tied up for that long is too high.
Anywho, on to the make-believe crayon drawings..
MSFT just kissed the trend line that connects the peaks from July 2021 and July of this year. Perhaps this is a large cup and handle but MSFT is more over extended med school student taking cash advances on mom and dad's credit card to yolo NVDA calls.
I'm sure you've seen the other charts on Tradingview that share my confirmation bias, see topics "megaphone", "cpi dump" etc.
I'm feeling fairly aggressive with this one and, while I don't believe the market can be timed I damn will will try. Dec 15th puts here we go.
Alternatively, selling short and selling puts is probably the closest anyone will ever get to guaranteed profits in this world.
Look, I get it, all the crypto bros are now AI bros and they're racking up huge bills in Azure training their own ChatGPT wrappers so they can deploy their one-of-five-hundred new chat apps. Yes, MSFT said that AI represented about 3% of revenue last quarter but they didn't elaborate on what rate of change that was from last year; AI is not new and it's more mature brother, ML, is likely being globbed into the revenue mix to paint a better picture.
Don't get me wrong, I'm on the AI hype train. I'm just now on the bullet train that is MSFT. Slowing cloud growth, a highly saturated cloud market... even with significant AI spend growth over the next 3-5 years I cannot get to the point where MSFT is worth 35+ PE today. Fundamentally my napkin math doesn't add up. Either I'm a monkey or the market is chasing after FOMO. To be clear, I think that MSFT will be worth 370 in 3-4 years, it's just the risk to open a new position and to have my money tied up for that long is too high.
Anywho, on to the make-believe crayon drawings..
MSFT just kissed the trend line that connects the peaks from July 2021 and July of this year. Perhaps this is a large cup and handle but MSFT is more over extended med school student taking cash advances on mom and dad's credit card to yolo NVDA calls.
I'm sure you've seen the other charts on Tradingview that share my confirmation bias, see topics "megaphone", "cpi dump" etc.
I'm feeling fairly aggressive with this one and, while I don't believe the market can be timed I damn will will try. Dec 15th puts here we go.
Alternatively, selling short and selling puts is probably the closest anyone will ever get to guaranteed profits in this world.