Nano is in a descending wedge from the 26th August high, getting ready for the next break up. There are two alternate counts at play (see my previous analysis for the first) and I now favour the second count shown here. This suggests that we can drop further to the 0.786 retrace but maintain a valid descending wedge formation for another break upwards. The buy area here would be in the 21k to 25k sat region and in USD terms I think around $1.10 to $1.30, based on the assumption that the additional drop goes in tandem with another dip from BTC towards the $5000 to $5500 region. If BTC breaks up from today's price level then we can break straight out of the wedge in the next day or so - but I think the higher probability is to wait a further 5 - 7 days before the break as BTC finishes its current bear wave.
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Nano is fighting back but I’ll consider it a bull trap until it has broken the wedge and the EMA200.. otherwise i’m still waiting for sub 25k sats.
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Rejected bang on the wedge upper resistance line and historical resistance line from Jul/Aug. See you tomorrow at the low 20’s.
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Looks like I was probably wrong last night, it had another go and broke the wedge, retested the wedge line for support then broke the 1H 200 EMA. It's now having a go at the 4H 200 EMA. If I was just trading BTC <-> NANO I would be in at this point, but because I'm concerned about USD gains I am holding off as I think BTC is due for a drop today, in the next hours. I'll wait for it to retest the 1H 200 EMA as a support, which might happen if/when BTC drops back to the support of its triangle.
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This is proving a frustrating one for me to trade as the good entry points have been occuring while I’ve been sleeping.
My hesitation is because I’m expecting BTC to drop back down to the lower support line shown here (it needs to either do that or break upwards). A move down will drag nano back down to a good entry point. There is a risk that it breaks right down through the lower support, which will threaten the nano EW sequence, so I want to see the entry point for the trade rather than leave my buy on overnight. There’s also a chance BTC breaks up from here, in which case nano will go ballistic. Unfortunately I have to sleep.
My hesitation is because I’m expecting BTC to drop back down to the lower support line shown here (it needs to either do that or break upwards). A move down will drag nano back down to a good entry point. There is a risk that it breaks right down through the lower support, which will threaten the nano EW sequence, so I want to see the entry point for the trade rather than leave my buy on overnight. There’s also a chance BTC breaks up from here, in which case nano will go ballistic. Unfortunately I have to sleep.
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Hello again NANO fans!
It looks like NANO is in a bull pennant now and getting ready for the next break. It could go straight from here, but pennants like this quite often push down to make a small wedge or flag before going up. When that happens it makes for very nervous times when you've just entered a trade in the pennant. I think that this is a fairly likely scenario given that BTC and ETH look to be dropping back down as I expected, and that could drag NANO below the current pennant.
BTC meanwhile has dropped back down below the EMA 200 again. I can see it easily going from here to retest the lower support of what I now think is a big bear flag in the next hours. As long as that support holds we can still trade a long in NANO. I am probably procrastinating about this one far too much as generally my TA is good but by entry decision making leaves something to be desired!
It looks like NANO is in a bull pennant now and getting ready for the next break. It could go straight from here, but pennants like this quite often push down to make a small wedge or flag before going up. When that happens it makes for very nervous times when you've just entered a trade in the pennant. I think that this is a fairly likely scenario given that BTC and ETH look to be dropping back down as I expected, and that could drag NANO below the current pennant.
BTC meanwhile has dropped back down below the EMA 200 again. I can see it easily going from here to retest the lower support of what I now think is a big bear flag in the next hours. As long as that support holds we can still trade a long in NANO. I am probably procrastinating about this one far too much as generally my TA is good but by entry decision making leaves something to be desired!
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Doh! I was on a plane and missed the break from this textbook bull pennant.
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Morning folks, we have the first suggestion of where subwave 2 might form. Possible retrace to around 35k will provide another chance to buy in for those who already haven’t. This is just a working theory and ideally we a third point confirmed on the top of the wedge to improve probability.
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Looking for a bounce at 35.5 - 36k or 32k:
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I think we can make one more drop to complete sub wave 2. How far depends on BTC. We could bounce off the 200 EMA or dip beneath it. If BTC drops we could push this small wedge out deeper and go to 34k or below, but if BTC sustains the current level I think we’ll be content with a 0.382 retrace or barely making the 0.5. So watch BTC and understand whether any further dip is BTC driven or not.
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We dipped further as I hoped and hit the 0.5 retrace. My assumption now is that this is a bull flag. I've gone long just at the historical support level at 35.6k sats, but with scope to DCA if we go lower. We could come deeper to the 0.618 or 0.786.
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For those of you looking at the BTC dip (you really should be), here are a couple of places it could bounce and three scenarios for what could happen next. Note that the volume is not as strong as the previous big drop, I don't think it has the same momentum. I am expected it to bounce at one of these two places and knock around in the current channel a little more. It would still not be a bad thing if it drops into the big blue buy box below.
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Here are a couple of of different routes we can take from here. I think/hope they all lead to the same place:
1) We break the descending resistance directly from here and continue up.
2) We're in a descending wedge, a bullish formation, and we may dip to 32.5k before reversing.
3) We're in a broadening descending wedge, a bullish formation, and we may dip to 29k before reversing.
In scenarios 1) and 2) our target for subwave 3 would be 59k. In scenario 3 we may struggle to make that on subwave 3. As always everything depends on BTC. The decision whether to trade subwave 3 or the 3-4-5 pattern will depend on how BTC behaves.
The target for subwave 5 (macro wave 3 on original chart) will be somewhere between 70k and 89k sats. If BTC recovers to/above 6600 it may be worthwhile just staying in for the ride, 130%+ would be a dream trade.
1) We break the descending resistance directly from here and continue up.
2) We're in a descending wedge, a bullish formation, and we may dip to 32.5k before reversing.
3) We're in a broadening descending wedge, a bullish formation, and we may dip to 29k before reversing.
In scenarios 1) and 2) our target for subwave 3 would be 59k. In scenario 3 we may struggle to make that on subwave 3. As always everything depends on BTC. The decision whether to trade subwave 3 or the 3-4-5 pattern will depend on how BTC behaves.
The target for subwave 5 (macro wave 3 on original chart) will be somewhere between 70k and 89k sats. If BTC recovers to/above 6600 it may be worthwhile just staying in for the ride, 130%+ would be a dream trade.
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We're fairly range bound right now, hopefully building a big bull flag to get enough momentum to break the 43k resistance. The altcoin pump yesterday didn't affect NANO, and it's possible that some of the capital in NANO got diverted out to the pumping coins as people tried to ladder up. Even if we come back down to 32k, which is possible, I'm staying in the trade and will DCA additional buys. Once we break 43k there should be plenty of headroom to go to 70k within, perhaps, a day or two.
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We're getting a little behind schedule on this one, but..
I still see this as an ascending triangle within a big bull flag. BTC has been bullish in the last 12 hours and this has kept NANO up in dollar terms. Even if we break down now we have a couple of support levels to rely on. So I think it's a good time to be in the market still and we should only stop out below the 31.5k support, if at all.
The major risk (and opportunity) to watch is that BTC is approaching the 6-month descending trend line and it could either break up or get a heavy rejection. Watch out for this in the next 2 - 4 days. If we break 6840 resistance and go through 7k with volume then it's showtime.
I still see this as an ascending triangle within a big bull flag. BTC has been bullish in the last 12 hours and this has kept NANO up in dollar terms. Even if we break down now we have a couple of support levels to rely on. So I think it's a good time to be in the market still and we should only stop out below the 31.5k support, if at all.
The major risk (and opportunity) to watch is that BTC is approaching the 6-month descending trend line and it could either break up or get a heavy rejection. Watch out for this in the next 2 - 4 days. If we break 6840 resistance and go through 7k with volume then it's showtime.
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I'm still in the long, somewhat in the red on this one, but prepared to DCA deeper into it if we get confirmation of the descending wedge with one more dip, preferably accompanied by bullish divergence on the 4H. I still think the break up is coming in the next few days.
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Ascending triangle within two descending wedges, approaching the 1:1 fib time extension from the start of the prior two largest impulses. Just the slightest hint of bullish divergence on the 1H. But the volume is abysmal right now.
Will my patience with this trade be rewarded? I am tempted to add to my position now to DCA my entry.
Will my patience with this trade be rewarded? I am tempted to add to my position now to DCA my entry.
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Observation of the time cycle here is quite interesting. I think there's the chance of at least a partial recovery over the next days.. or BTC can tank further and NANO will go back below $1.. so I think we have to stop out if BTC goes below 6250.