Kumowizard
Short

Nasdaq100 - The sick one. Sell zone is 3590-3635

FX:NAS100   NASDAQ 100 index of US listed shares
180 7 3
Obviously this mkt is very sick. Every last bullish attempt faded. Price broke below daily Kumo, and the tech bulls might face a serious trouble soon, in case Nas100             drops below 3500 key support.

But for now it seems a bit oversold on 4 Hrs time frame, so the bulls will likely try to protect 3500 and the weakest chain can show some correction today and/or tomorrow towards 3600 +/-. That is the sell zone now for both those who wanna get out and for those who wanna go short. Get ready, this will affect all markets. The structure of the long lasting US bull market is deteriorating a lot.

So far talking heads are telling it is a portfolio restructuring, re-allocation, etc. But the fact is, the previous leaders got very weak, investors try to squeeze the last juice of the bull mkt and swing from leaders to lagging stocks . Technically this is just bringing closer the end of the bull market and the major bearish reversal. No one should believe that in the long run it wiill not effect European or any other stock markets. We must start to monitor the global picture together, I mean the common behaviour of the major and broad stock indexes. Sell in May? Or sell in April? We'll see, but the warning signs all around are gathering.
2use
2 years ago
Add this to your picture ;)
NAS100 next move will tell a lot


What bothers me about the friday sell-off opposite to the previous ones recently made is that it had practically no ground or reason for it. It just fell - they just sold, and sold hard. It is not a numbers crisis, it is just a sell-off for now. But if dips lower, it will spill.
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Kumowizard PRO 2use
2 years ago
There is always a reason for the price to move (in any directions), even if we do not see it, or can not explain immediately. I agree, there was no "news trigger" on friday. But the reason can be for example, that smart money feels or sees bull market is coming to an end soon. Thus they reduce positions from leading stock longs. Other reason: everybody is loaded on stocks like hell, and they can not load relatively too much, since the whole mkt is over-leveraged.
We do not have to understand the "reasons". For example recently I do not even look on economic datas, or headlines, as those just cause short term noise and volatility in any instruments.
What we have to understand is the momentum, the price action, and the probabilities of trends that we have to follow. We can not predict the future, so where prices will exactly go (even though most technical analysts try to be predictive), and also everything what is behind price movements is always a "history" :-).
But anyway, I completely agree with you, and like your chart. Thx a lot!
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2use Kumowizard
2 years ago
"everybody is loaded on stocks like hell" that is not the case actually - since 2008 people are much more scared to invest in stocks and it still has a lot of money on the sidelines. This is one of the issues - with people not buying stocks that much, they sure went up a lot. Means that those who do buy take on a higher risk. Predicting the market is a fools game indeed - that is why they call tech traders fools:) But i cant avoid the fact the checking back and testing the rules one could have seen sell signals in tons of places. I've seen one last week and the week before and i can say that i existed a lot of positions prior to their lowest price last week.
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Kumowizard PRO 2use
2 years ago
Don't get me wrong, I really do not want to offense you saying that, but this is my all time favourite: "a lot of money on the sidelines". This is basically something that never has any meaning at all. What is lot compared to what? Is it only true when stock prices go up? Since with falling stock prices portfolios are loosing their value, meaning change in relative cash level to whole portfolio, etc.
So let's have a check list:
Market leverage is at all time high, higher than any time before in history.
"Mom and Pop" cash funds are at 34 years low, meaning that each 1 billion dollars could now only buy 0,33 % of the shares of SP500 index.
Classic bond funds, like PIMCO and Friends, keep all time high equity exposure, to catch up some performance somehow. (Bond funds (!), which should never touch equities at all, but this is just my personal view.)
Active investment managers are holding a very high stock exposure too, read as an average manager keeps a 91 % net long exposure.

So maybe there's still "some cash left on the sidelines", but that will very quickly evaporate when these mkts sell off, so bulls will have less cash on the sidelines. :-D.

So basically I think investors have a lot more stocks and risk, than cash (risk free element of portfolio).

Anyway I still do not care too much about these datas, since the only thing that matter is the price action and the chart! I just find them interesting.
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2use Kumowizard
2 years ago
I also find them interesting, and i allow people to have a view of their own - the truth lies in an argument. Indeed, maybe it was too off the edge saying too much (you can quantify much, beaty, simple). And i could counter myself with the fact that so many IPOs came out recently and had money in them that this also leads to a question of how much risk people take. Maybe ill phrase it in a different way - the markets have less confidence than they had prior to 2008. I feel it still is there - that fear of it going down. But hey, it will always go down at some point - markets are poised to crash, we cant head higher all the time, and these corrections are the best places to buy.
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Kumowizard PRO 2use
2 years ago
Now with this I completely agree. One more last thing. QE distorted everything here. Not just the markets and pricing, but people's mind as well! Now people believe interest rate and inflation will stay low forever! They also believe FED will always back them, and bull market lasts forever. If not the FED then ECB, BoJ or maybe God, or some Aliens from another galaxy :-). But as you say, ntg lasts forever. And what's more, there's nothing new on the markets. Fear and Greed. It's been always the same since human kind invented financial mkts and instruments. And nothing, not even HFTs will change this ever.
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2use Kumowizard
2 years ago
It is for the good. Sell the greed, buy the fear - worked for everyone all the time:) Now, if only i could tell the lowest and the highest points :)
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