Kumowizard
Short

The big picture, and notes about a neutral market

FX:NAS100   NASDAQ 100 index of US listed shares
225 1 8
Bull market? Buy? Or top building? Bear market signals? Sell?

From day to day people try chasing it and find new reasons to go bullish/bearish again. Most of the times people look at very short time frames, maximum the daily. Let's make a big step back and check both the closer and the bird view!

Ladies and Gentlemen, this market is NEUTRAL.

Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is neutral. Price trades at the thin Kumo. Kijun Sen (26 weeks average ) has been flat line with appr. 4300 level since August/2015 ! Forward Senkou B (52 weeks average ) has been flat line again with 4300 value for about 36 weeks now! This market stopped trending up! I don't mean there is zero chance it could try another bull run over 4600, but if you look at the big picture price action for the last 9 months, you see there are times of serious turbulences and distribution. This still looks like a ajor Head and Shoulders top pattern is forming
- Key supports: 4300 is a very important level. If market breaks it, that will be very likely the real start of a Bear market. Below 4300 next supp/res zone is 4000-4100, and the last line of deffense is around the 0,236 fibo level, and the big trendline: 3855+
- Heikin-Ashi was bearish until last week, but price popped from Kijun and Senkou support of 4300. This week we have a bullish candle, but will it be able to continue higher, bringing haDelta/SMA3 well above zero, or will bullish-like price action fade around 4500+ again?
- EWO? No clue. Neutral. No trend wave in place.

So the weekly picture is still choppy, neutral. This market can be called bullish only above 4600. Otherwise I rather look at this pattern as a major top formation. Strategic sell below 4300! Bear market confirmation would come below 4100.

Daily:
- "impressive, the most impressive!" - says Darth Wader. But is it? Ichimoku setup is still neutral! Price popped nicely, but stays in the thick neutral Kumo zone. Short term equilibrium is 4400. Forward Kumo is neutral with some bearish bias.
- Heikin-Ashi showed the possible reversal up in time. But Price reaches 4490-4550 resistance zone, while haDelta hit an extreme high. Market is very overbought short term. I think we could see some consolidation, or a dip back to 4400 +/- equilibrium again.
- Price doesn't not just fluctuate in a thick neutral Kumo, but also in a triangle. The break of it will be decisive.
- Bulls have to push it above 4560-4600 to show they are in control, or else, this "bul run" will be nothing else, just a short squeeze, actually caused by bears covering.
Bears have to focus on 4300-4350.

That's all. You see the levels where to act. And don't forget to always look at the big picture too! Try to think as a long term player (investor), not as a short term speculator. Be very patient! You don't have to react always on every 2-5 % moves. You have to catch a trend, once it starts.
AugustinC
6 months ago
Thank you for this.
Good analysis
Reply
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