staticla
Education

3- 4 year trend is down

OANDA:NATGASUSD   CFDs on Natural Gas
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Unfortunately it seems until the last 10 years trend is broken , I expect a sharp and huge fall maybe even below 1.3 . Be careful guys. If you check the open interest many big speculators are shorting . Careful with your SL and don't leave your trade open for weekends...
Jan 16
Comment: Unfortunately , if this is the 3-4 years low move , we will see 1,3 . I really wish I am wrong ...
Jan 20
Comment: Unfortunately I was right, please be careful , I believe there will be several bull traps , they will push it up to 1,95 even to 2,0 then crash again. Also US is really freezing right now , it seems weather forecasts are rigged.

Comments

Hmmm I read that gas production companies are basically running negative cash flow if NATGAS is below 2.0. I am not an expert, but what the article implied was that if the price falls below 2.0, several plants will be shut down limiting supply. Its tough to say of course how fast are production companies able to adjust to changes in market. But 1.3 seems impossible because its well below cost of production.
+1 Reply
staticla KingJu1ian
@KingJu1ian, The cost of natgas production is virtually "0" , almost 60% of the us natgas production is just a byproduct of the oil extractions. So yes price can even go well below 1,3. I don't know if you are aware but companies are flaring the natgas ( so it is worthless ).... In europe china ...etc , I agree with you , they need the natgas , but almost all of their need is covered by Russia and middle east and even their price is around 2,4. So, don't expect any price above 2.5 and expect a huge fall even below 1.3
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faronf staticla
@staticla, i know companies flare sour gas and they may flare off where they have yet to get pipelines to areas where new production is ramping up (eg. areas of the permian). Do you have any resources you could provide to reflect how extensive this is? It may take for us to get through the next financial shakeout, where some producers shut in b4 the next bull market shakes out? We are in late in the timing band for a 3YCL however and is we should see a weekly swing low off of one more large downside move, we may be back in business for longs... too risky yet though IMO.
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faronf faronf
if we break below $2 and people cover their longs, there could be a good set-up for a short squeeze eventually as traders become increasingly bearish... if we can hit that 1.885 region again, looks like a large inverse H&S, but i don't put too much trust in those formations unless the formations preceding are clear. I personally find natty too difficult to chart on a regular basis.
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@faronf, This is pure manipulation , there is no logic in natty , today the draw was good but still crashed like a rock...
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One thing that keeps me from believing that we'll see the bottom of the channel is the idea that this current 3 year cycle has right translated. 2016-2020 - the high being late 2018. This suggests this current extended 3 year cycle should not take out the 2016 low. In cycle analysis, when it comes to larger degree cycles, i'm unsure, however, how much validity this has?
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@faronf, if it moves in the channel bottom is well below 1,3
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