rjtchch

Newcrest at a trough

Long
ASX:NCM   None
NCM coming into major support. For an attempt at knife catching, I beleive this is a screaming buy. Will be accumulating leverage in the form of options, some ITM calls and then some Further out or higher strike prices so I can capitalize if this dreadnought really gets ripping. Targeting the ATH and beyond.

I have never owned NCM but I like their long life, large scale tier 1 mines and their recent JV with Imperial giving them 70% ownership of the Red Chris Copper gold porphyry in the Golden Triangle, BC, Canada. NCM have decided to venture overseas to Canada for this project so they must have good confidence in this delivering. I speculate that continuation of positive Red Chris drill results should help reverse downside momentum.

This stock has been underperforming other Majors while it is one of the least risky plays with some exposure to copper too.

If we see increasing inflation and rising copper prices in the short to media term, which I believe will happen, as with gold price spiking too, NCM should play some serious catch up as Australian funds look for something liquid and respectable.

"Newcrest is one of the world's largest gold mining companies We safely deliver superior returns to our stakeholders from finding, developing and operating gold and copper mines."

In December, Just taking a look at December production, they have 77% Gold, .5% silver and 22% copper production. This isn't cash flow, this is just basic math I did on the $ value of each metal produced in comparison, which could be a little misleading.

Copper is arguably a better way to play inflation. Commodities right now, especially copper, are driving inflation due to significant loss of production from Covid-19 in 2021. China continues to horde commodities and I make the assumption the insane near 100% increase in Australian homebuilding is also a trend in other places.

Currently the world is sold out of retail silver bullion, and I assume platinum and gold are experiencing strong retail demand also. If gold can continue upwards from this recent low and hold the double bottom here, It can have an extremely explosive rally once it gets to 1960. - This will send gold to new highs which will catch media attention and also the attention of Australian money mangers, who will be under pressure to pile into the gold miners.


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