Hello Traders,
lets look at the NASDAQ100 index.
N100 made a new ATH @7691.10 on Aug.30! The decline since than is the third strongest (July25-30; and June 20-28) and has the potencial to finished the N100 bullmarket! Not because of the length, just because of the weakness, N100 is showing.
While just a handful stocks participate to the advance, like AMZN; AAPL; NFLX; FB; Alphabet (Goog`s Mom) they are, too, responsible to this advance.
As Bloomberg statet days ago, „...nearly half of the rally at NASDAQ Composite since 8000 has been due to the named stocks!“
That means that the rest of the stocks, based on the Nasdaq 100 index, have contributed little or nothing to the increase! These are cleear signs of a weak performance and shows not a strong behavior! And too, we have a clear, month long divergence between the DJIA and the S&P500 and the N100 index!
The S&P500 performed strong, of course of his tech load ! So as both have risen to new highs (N100 and S&P500) it is possible, that both have ended there rallys on Aug 30!
Back to chart.
While the decline since Aug 30 is not clear a „five-down“ we have to monitor the index closely and analyse hour after hour for more confidence to one or the other side. Fridays a/d-Ratio was flat (@ 0.93) and TRIN:NQ was too at 0.97! So from this perspective there are no clear sign, to my view, to one or the other side. As long as investors highly belief in an ongoing bull market, not an ending, which may the DOW did, we have to be patient with short activity on a longterm „window“!
So, the pattern to me is not clear, but one possibilitie is, that N100 is working on a „Ending Diagonale“ which is just able at the end of an advance, as in a wave 5. As shown at chart, the diagonal is not „testbook-like“ but a possibilitie to my view! As befor, while many others do excist, Iike to see more clear for a stated pointment!
While the bullmarket is running for serveral years, it is more likely that this trend is ending, not starting, as many observers and analyst stated out the past days and weeks!
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analys can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!
www.tradingview.com/...symbols/USI-TRIN.NQ/
www.barchart.com/sto...ADRQ/technical-chart
lets look at the NASDAQ100 index.
N100 made a new ATH @7691.10 on Aug.30! The decline since than is the third strongest (July25-30; and June 20-28) and has the potencial to finished the N100 bullmarket! Not because of the length, just because of the weakness, N100 is showing.
While just a handful stocks participate to the advance, like AMZN; AAPL; NFLX; FB; Alphabet (Goog`s Mom) they are, too, responsible to this advance.
As Bloomberg statet days ago, „...nearly half of the rally at NASDAQ Composite since 8000 has been due to the named stocks!“
That means that the rest of the stocks, based on the Nasdaq 100 index, have contributed little or nothing to the increase! These are cleear signs of a weak performance and shows not a strong behavior! And too, we have a clear, month long divergence between the DJIA and the S&P500 and the N100 index!
The S&P500 performed strong, of course of his tech load ! So as both have risen to new highs (N100 and S&P500) it is possible, that both have ended there rallys on Aug 30!
Back to chart.
While the decline since Aug 30 is not clear a „five-down“ we have to monitor the index closely and analyse hour after hour for more confidence to one or the other side. Fridays a/d-Ratio was flat (@ 0.93) and TRIN:NQ was too at 0.97! So from this perspective there are no clear sign, to my view, to one or the other side. As long as investors highly belief in an ongoing bull market, not an ending, which may the DOW did, we have to be patient with short activity on a longterm „window“!
So, the pattern to me is not clear, but one possibilitie is, that N100 is working on a „Ending Diagonale“ which is just able at the end of an advance, as in a wave 5. As shown at chart, the diagonal is not „testbook-like“ but a possibilitie to my view! As befor, while many others do excist, Iike to see more clear for a stated pointment!
While the bullmarket is running for serveral years, it is more likely that this trend is ending, not starting, as many observers and analyst stated out the past days and weeks!
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analys can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!
www.tradingview.com/...symbols/USI-TRIN.NQ/
www.barchart.com/sto...ADRQ/technical-chart