2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - Day 17 (1.203 BTC)
Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Today I was stopped out of my XRP long and that is my 8th losing trade in a row since beginning this challenge. Combine that with 0 wins and I find myself in a large hole. Judging by the number of likes and views that this has been getting people are noticing and losing interest very quickly.
That is okay though because this right here is what separates the doers from the tryers:
When the going gets tough, the tough get going
If you understand standard deviation then you know that losing streaks are to be expected, but at what point do you point the finger at yourself instead of at the variance?
I try to focus on the process instead of the results, however when the results are this poor I am forced to take a step back to see if there was anything under my control that I could have done differently.
There are a number of things that I will do differently moving forward but the biggest factor that jumps out at me is not zooming out enough. I was trading Consensio on the daily and completing disregarding the weekly and monthly charts. If I would have started with a longer term view then I would have been able to avoid a number of the losing positions that I entered.
Following a string of losses most are inclined to increase leverage / relative risk and that is the absolute last thing that should be done. There will be a strong impulse to try to win back what was just lost but that needs to be avoided at all cost.
Therefore I really like taking my risk down a notch until I get on the right side of the market for a few trades. That helps me to refocus, which is absolutely vital. Instead of focusing on winning my money back I am focused on making good trades.
When starting this challenge I was targeting 0.1 BTC - 0.15 BTC risk per position. Now that my bankroll for this challenge has been almost sliced in half, I am going to target 0.025 BTC - 0.05 BTC risk per position.
This helps me to feel confident that I am controlling my emotions. If I continue my losing streak then I will continue to scale down my risk. I will only look to ramp it back up once I capitalize on of few wins and start to get some mojo back.
To add insult to injury I have been very interested in shorting NFLX leading up to this earnings report. It is phase 7 in a hyperwave and all the new was expected it to beat earnings by 30%+. Therefore buy the hype, sell the news. If they miss slightly then that would be an even better selling opportunity. However, I wasn't diligent enough in my preparation. The exchange I use doesn't offer NFLX so I tried to do a last minute transfer to a different BTC exchange that does. The transaction didn't confirm until after markets closed and now I may have missed my entry (markets falling in afterhours trading).
When it rains it pours and that is why it is important to own a quality umbrella.
Open Positions
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
*1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656.
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.374 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Has been super frustrating watching this position move against me.
Open Orders
Short XAU:USD
*1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation.
Long USD:CAD
*1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC
Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%)
Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach.
Closed Positions
LONG XRPH19
*1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market.
*1/17/19 STOPPED OUT: On a wick that only occured on 2 out of 6 major exchanges. Very frustrating.
Enter: 0.00009135
Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC)
Leverage: 15X
Realized PnL: -0.1327 BTC
ROI: -7.16% / -107%
Watchtower
NFLX
Notes: "Netflix beats on subscriber growth but misses slightly on revenue" gives me a $200 target based on VRVP and the 200 W MA
BTC
Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish.
XRPBTC
Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist.
ETHUSD:
Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s
Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA)
LTCUSD:
Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Strategy | Click here for my Comprehensive Trading Process | Click here to learn about the 2 BTC' to 20 BTC' Trading Challenge
Today I was stopped out of my XRP long and that is my 8th losing trade in a row since beginning this challenge. Combine that with 0 wins and I find myself in a large hole. Judging by the number of likes and views that this has been getting people are noticing and losing interest very quickly.
That is okay though because this right here is what separates the doers from the tryers:
When the going gets tough, the tough get going
If you understand standard deviation then you know that losing streaks are to be expected, but at what point do you point the finger at yourself instead of at the variance?
I try to focus on the process instead of the results, however when the results are this poor I am forced to take a step back to see if there was anything under my control that I could have done differently.
There are a number of things that I will do differently moving forward but the biggest factor that jumps out at me is not zooming out enough. I was trading Consensio on the daily and completing disregarding the weekly and monthly charts. If I would have started with a longer term view then I would have been able to avoid a number of the losing positions that I entered.
Following a string of losses most are inclined to increase leverage / relative risk and that is the absolute last thing that should be done. There will be a strong impulse to try to win back what was just lost but that needs to be avoided at all cost.
Therefore I really like taking my risk down a notch until I get on the right side of the market for a few trades. That helps me to refocus, which is absolutely vital. Instead of focusing on winning my money back I am focused on making good trades.
When starting this challenge I was targeting 0.1 BTC - 0.15 BTC risk per position. Now that my bankroll for this challenge has been almost sliced in half, I am going to target 0.025 BTC - 0.05 BTC risk per position.
This helps me to feel confident that I am controlling my emotions. If I continue my losing streak then I will continue to scale down my risk. I will only look to ramp it back up once I capitalize on of few wins and start to get some mojo back.
To add insult to injury I have been very interested in shorting NFLX leading up to this earnings report. It is phase 7 in a hyperwave and all the new was expected it to beat earnings by 30%+. Therefore buy the hype, sell the news. If they miss slightly then that would be an even better selling opportunity. However, I wasn't diligent enough in my preparation. The exchange I use doesn't offer NFLX so I tried to do a last minute transfer to a different BTC exchange that does. The transaction didn't confirm until after markets closed and now I may have missed my entry (markets falling in afterhours trading).
When it rains it pours and that is why it is important to own a quality umbrella.
Open Positions
Long: USDTRY
Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.182 BTC
Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.
Short: SPX500
*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%
*1/11/19 GOLDEN CROSS does not necessarily signal scale out due to angle of L MA. Stop loss set at $2,656.
Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.44%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.374 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC
Notes: Has been super frustrating watching this position move against me.
Open Orders
Short XAU:USD
*1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation.
Long USD:CAD
*1/17/19: Entered order to long 0.21 lots at $1.3303 with a $1.3149 stop loss. Expected risk = 1.15% / 0.07 BTC
Recent GGC with 50 and 200 W MA’s. Daily signaled 50% entry due to P > S MA (5%) + Bullish M MA (30%) + BS (15%)
Could have entered at daily close but instead of buying resistance set stop entry slightly above current price. This was a lesson I learned from my string off losses, a number would have been avoided with this approach.
Closed Positions
LONG XRPH19
*1/11/19 SCALE IN: P < Bullish L MA represents oversold asset in bull market.
*1/17/19 STOPPED OUT: On a wick that only occured on 2 out of 6 major exchanges. Very frustrating.
Enter: 0.00009135
Exposure: 20,267 XRP (1.8518 BTC)
Leverage: 15X
Realized PnL: -0.1327 BTC
ROI: -7.16% / -107%
Watchtower
NFLX
Notes: "Netflix beats on subscriber growth but misses slightly on revenue" gives me a $200 target based on VRVP and the 200 W MA
BTC
Notes: Expecting gap in volume profile to get filled before final capitulation takes up to the $1.4K - $1K range. Backwardation spread is up to 4% which is primary reason why I am bullish.
XRPBTC
Notes: Appears to be breaking down symm triangle & rolling over D L MA following DC. Backwardation is the only reason I am holding onto long. Trying to re enter weekly cloud which is on verge of bullish kumo twist.
ETHUSD:
Patterns: 5 month bear channel | Daily chart starting to look like h&s
Notes: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly higher low? Lifetime POC = $212 (in confluence with W L MA & 200 D MA)
LTCUSD:
Patterns: 7 month bear channel with potential recent bull trap. If TL resistance holds then should get a h&s w abbreviated right shoulder.
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