NatGas - Possibility for a failed daily cycle

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
1311 16
It is very similar to oil . We are in a new daily cycle. Couldn't break the previous daily cycle 's high.
That 3$ top looks like Mount Everest. We tried to break 3 times but failed.
I'M a bit cautious here. Oil is in a new intermediate cycle. Natgas getting late in its intermediate cycle. If it's a left translated daily cycle without new high we will roll over and heading into the intermediate low. We will break the previous DCL, that would be a failed daily cycle.
The intermediate low could be around the 200 SMA . It's now at 2.25$. I don't intend to hold NatGas through an intermediate decline.

We lost the 10 and 20 EMA and tagging the 50 EMA .
WE broke below the blue trendline .
MACD and TSI are bearish .
Only RSI is giving the chance for the upside rally.

So the plan is the following:
I'M giving 2 more days to NatGAs . If it's not starting to rally Friday the latest I will close the position and wait for the ICL to reenter again. That could be around 2.2$.
Comment: We scared NatGas.
We gave her 2 days and finally it started to run.
I'M setting my stop loss below yesterday's low and holding this position.
Let's see if we can print a higher high...
Comment: Yesterday might be the HCL. We break above 10,20 EMA and above the down trendline again.
Hmmm.. Day 26 in the 3rd daily cycle. Showing an inability to break through and good price action around some previous highs, and a turn down in RSI from slightly overbought with a small divergence In the earlier NGAS idea, Arpi said we had a comfortable 2 weeks, maybe 3 (about now) before turning down into the DCL/ICL around the 200SMA. I'm going to start nibbling in short with DGAZ. Any thoughts on FOMC meeting on NGAS?
Arpi, what is your target price to entrer a short position?
Nice move in NGAS! I'm looking for a top to work down to Arpi's ICL target. This looks like @tntsunrise 's favorite topping price action (tag, drop, pierce, drop below, tag and retreat) around a structured previous, recent high. I'm not pulling any trigger on this just yet, but curious if others see this.

bertcoin bertcoin
Shooting star on the hourly to 4 hourly charts? I'm a novice, so feel free to critique!
I am seeing huge blocs, such as 710K, of CHK shares being purchased at ask at the close. Even after 14,4% stock's gain, today, alone. This could be another confirmation for further rally in natgas. Just as we have witnessed with ERX and OIl. Nat Gas companies started rallying yesterday already, even though gas itself was weak and indecisive.
marketpundit marketpundit
we have also bounced off of the FIBO 61.8%.
Nice bounce today. As you say we are late in the intermediate cycle, with $3 probably unreachable (Everest). I'll be looking for the final high as a DGAZ entry point down to the ICL. The $2,90 area looks like pretty solid resistance, or are we even going to get to 2.9? Thoughts?
Pretty nice rally today!
"Winter is coming"!!! (famous line from the Game of Thrones) but the real one will be here soon too (farmers almanac predicts a heavy one)
We should rebound soon, maybe maybe Friday
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