NatGAs - Waiting for the cycle low

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
1412 13 42
Not too much is happening here. NatGAs is consolidating after the big rally. We are getting late in this daily cycle, and I'M waiting for a daily cycle bottom in the next 2-3 weeks.

It seems NatGas just broke out of the bull flag and we might print a mini rally this week(A) but I don't think it will be a sustained rally because we are late in the cycle and at the cycle bottom we need to tag the 200 EMA on the daily chart .
So I have 2 scenarios:
A (blue) this week or early next week we can have a pop maybe a marginal break of 3$ after that a steep decline to the DCL at the 200 EMA (2.4$) around the middle of August.
B (red) we just continue this slow move down into the DCL and we tag the 200 EMA 2-3 weeks and print the DCL at 2.3$.

At the DCL I would like to see the 10 day RSI to close below the 50 line.

I will not enter enter any position here right now.
I will short NatGas if we have the bounce up to 3$, or go long at the DCL (2.3$)
Nothing to do until then.

If you are short now close the position if price bottoms at 2.3$ and try to survive the bounce - if it comes- to 3$
If you are long take profit in the bounce if it comes and reenter at the DCL at 2.3$. If there is no bounce you have to survive the decline to the DCL (2.3$)

I'm almost 100% sure there will be no break below 2$.

Comment: For those who are waiting NatGas to bottom I suggest a bit of a patience here. We are entering into the panic selling stage. Wait 5-6 days and we will get a perfect buying opportunity. I will post a chart here tonight.
Comment: WE WILL BREAK DOWN 2.62 SO DONT BUY TODAY. Too early...
I think $2.35 would be a nice place to start buying. 0.618 fib retracement right on trend line.
+1 Reply
Oh that's funny! I hit post on my question and you posted simultaneously!
I hear Arpi saying: Wait for it! (For any Monty Python fans.... ) That's me on the left end of the formation.
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Hello! We're 3 weeks out and tempting to nibble long on NGAS here at the 200 EMA (red) as it makes a strong move down to tag. 10-day RSI at 39 ("I'd like to see it below 50"). It's not 2.3 or the 200 MA (green and blue drawn box). Thoughts anyone?

I think now is start of the next cycle. What do you think ? Probably I should buy with tight stop
Are you preparing to Short? mayby you already have it . Five days ago we had a level 2.935....
Today it shows NGAS is following the A Line?
bertcoin PRO ice_holly01
Sure is. Wow. With oil and gold bottoming will be interesting to see if NGAS can get down to $2.3....
NGAS is nicely following the B line. If Oil will consolidate and bottom early next week, will that influence NGAS to bottom a little sooner?
A or B ?
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