chartwatchers

NatGAs - Waiting for the cycle low

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
1406 13 40
4 months ago
Not too much is happening here. NatGAs is consolidating after the big rally. We are getting late in this daily cycle, and I'M waiting for a daily cycle bottom in the next 2-3 weeks.

It seems NatGas just broke out of the bull flag and we might print a mini rally this week(A) but I don't think it will be a sustained rally because we are late in the cycle and at the cycle bottom we need to tag the 200 EMA on the daily chart .
So I have 2 scenarios:
A (blue) this week or early next week we can have a pop maybe a marginal break of 3$ after that a steep decline to the DCL at the 200 EMA (2.4$) around the middle of August.
B (red) we just continue this slow move down into the DCL and we tag the 200 EMA 2-3 weeks and print the DCL at 2.3$.

At the DCL I would like to see the 10 day RSI to close below the 50 line.

I will not enter enter any position here right now.
I will short NatGas if we have the bounce up to 3$, or go long at the DCL (2.3$)
Nothing to do until then.

If you are short now close the position if price bottoms at 2.3$ and try to survive the bounce - if it comes- to 3$
If you are long take profit in the bounce if it comes and reenter at the DCL at 2.3$. If there is no bounce you have to survive the decline to the DCL (2.3$)

I'm almost 100% sure there will be no break below 2$.

3 months ago
Comment: For those who are waiting NatGas to bottom I suggest a bit of a patience here. We are entering into the panic selling stage. Wait 5-6 days and we will get a perfect buying opportunity. I will post a chart here tonight.
3 months ago
Comment: WE WILL BREAK DOWN 2.62 SO DONT BUY TODAY. Too early...
bluecode
4 months ago
A or B ?
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chartwatchers PRO bluecode
4 months ago
50-50%
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AlbertaOil chartwatchers
4 months ago
B is the target ... lets see the trend for Thursday
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yegornaut chartwatchers
4 months ago
Hello chartwatchers, do you still believe in A scenario if I may ask?
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bertcoin PRO
4 months ago
NGAS is nicely following the B line. If Oil will consolidate and bottom early next week, will that influence NGAS to bottom a little sooner?
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ice_holly01
4 months ago
Today it shows NGAS is following the A Line?
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bertcoin PRO ice_holly01
4 months ago
Sure is. Wow. With oil and gold bottoming will be interesting to see if NGAS can get down to $2.3....
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ArtFly
4 months ago
Are you preparing to Short? mayby you already have it . Five days ago we had a level 2.935....
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andrej123456
4 months ago
I think now is start of the next cycle. What do you think ? Probably I should buy with tight stop
Reply
bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
Hello! We're 3 weeks out and tempting to nibble long on NGAS here at the 200 EMA (red) as it makes a strong move down to tag. 10-day RSI at 39 ("I'd like to see it below 50"). It's not 2.3 or the 200 MA (green and blue drawn box). Thoughts anyone?

snapshot
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
Oh that's funny! I hit post on my question and you posted simultaneously!
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bertcoin PRO bertcoin
3 months ago
I hear Arpi saying: Wait for it! (For any Monty Python fans.... https://youtu.be/h20SnxLU5yM ) That's me on the left end of the formation.
+1 Reply
I think $2.35 would be a nice place to start buying. 0.618 fib retracement right on trend line.
+1 Reply
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