NatGAs - Waiting for the cycle low
Not too much is happening here. NatGAs is consolidating after the big rally. We are getting late in this daily cycle, and I'M waiting for a daily cycle bottom in the next 2-3 weeks.
It seems NatGas just broke out of the bull flag and we might print a mini rally this week(A) but I don't think it will be a sustained rally because we are late in the cycle and at the cycle bottom we need to tag the 200 EMA on the daily chart.
So I have 2 scenarios:
A (blue) this week or early next week we can have a pop maybe a marginal break of 3$ after that a steep decline to the DCL at the 200 EMA (2.4$) around the middle of August.
B (red) we just continue this slow move down into the DCL and we tag the 200 EMA 2-3 weeks and print the DCL at 2.3$.
At the DCL I would like to see the 10 day RSI to close below the 50 line.
I will not enter enter any position here right now.
I will short NatGas if we have the bounce up to 3$, or go long at the DCL (2.3$)
Nothing to do until then.
If you are short now close the position if price bottoms at 2.3$ and try to survive the bounce - if it comes- to 3$
If you are long take profit in the bounce if it comes and reenter at the DCL at 2.3$. If there is no bounce you have to survive the decline to the DCL (2.3$)
I'm almost 100% sure there will be no break below 2$.
It seems NatGas just broke out of the bull flag and we might print a mini rally this week(A) but I don't think it will be a sustained rally because we are late in the cycle and at the cycle bottom we need to tag the 200 EMA on the daily chart.
So I have 2 scenarios:
A (blue) this week or early next week we can have a pop maybe a marginal break of 3$ after that a steep decline to the DCL at the 200 EMA (2.4$) around the middle of August.
B (red) we just continue this slow move down into the DCL and we tag the 200 EMA 2-3 weeks and print the DCL at 2.3$.
At the DCL I would like to see the 10 day RSI to close below the 50 line.
I will not enter enter any position here right now.
I will short NatGas if we have the bounce up to 3$, or go long at the DCL (2.3$)
Nothing to do until then.
If you are short now close the position if price bottoms at 2.3$ and try to survive the bounce - if it comes- to 3$
If you are long take profit in the bounce if it comes and reenter at the DCL at 2.3$. If there is no bounce you have to survive the decline to the DCL (2.3$)
I'm almost 100% sure there will be no break below 2$.
Comment:
For those who are waiting NatGas to bottom I suggest a bit of a patience here. We are entering into the panic selling stage. Wait 5-6 days and we will get a perfect buying opportunity. I will post a chart here tonight.
Comment:
WE WILL BREAK DOWN 2.62 SO DONT BUY TODAY. Too early...