It seems NatGas just broke out of the and we might print a mini rally this week(A) but I don't think it will be a sustained rally because we are late in the cycle and at the cycle bottom we need to tag the 200 on the .
So I have 2 scenarios:
A (blue) this week or early next week we can have a pop maybe a marginal break of 3$ after that a steep decline to the DCL at the 200 (2.4$) around the middle of August.
B (red) we just continue this slow move down into the DCL and we tag the 200 2-3 weeks and print the DCL at 2.3$.
At the DCL I would like to see the 10 day to close below the 50 line.
I will not enter enter any position here right now.
I will short NatGas if we have the bounce up to 3$, or go long at the DCL (2.3$)
Nothing to do until then.
If you are short now close the position if price bottoms at 2.3$ and try to survive the bounce - if it comes- to 3$
If you are long take profit in the bounce if it comes and reenter at the DCL at 2.3$. If there is no bounce you have to survive the decline to the DCL (2.3$)
I'm almost 100% sure there will be no break below 2$.