chartwatchers
Short

NatGas - Selling the breakout

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
4114 89 52
This is what I was waiting for. I'm not going all in just 20% of my NatGas account.
We are on day 40. It's just too late in the daily cycle to have a follow through after this breakout.

This will be a test of my cycle count in NatGas. If I'm right the next DCL will be an ICL also.
We are going to tag the 200 SMA - maybe break below it - in the next 2-3 weeks.
Steep decline is coming.

Selling US NatGas Dec             at 3.42 $.
Comment: Selling the other 20%.
We will have the big volume by the close.
Selling US NatGas Dec at 3.4$
Comment: Mitasse asked, but it's important.
Price is always regressing to the mean. Big players - in this case Doha - is watching the 200 SMA for reloading the truck. Sometimes the pullback is so strong that price breaks it but later always recovers.
snapshot
Comment: And notice the RSI divergence.
We are going to earn 1$ on this one. The 200 SMA is at 2.33$.
Comment: Highest volume since July. Big players were selling today.
We were selling with them to retail.
I like to trade at the side of Empire.
And most traders think that "Winter is coming" time to buy NatGas.
It has nothing to do with the seasons. It will fall like a stone in the coldest winter.
Comment: Look at DGAZ volume....
Smartmoney was buying today! Highest volume this year.
snapshot
Comment: DGAZ easily could make 100% to 10$...
Comment: Someone posted Natty was falling last year because of warm winter.
Here is a chart which shows price halfed down in 2014. A very cold winter in North America.
snapshot
Comment: ".This summer was the hottest in the century. :(
Why one thinks the winter will be cold?
But even if its the hardest winter ever Natty still can go down.
Comment: Selling the next 20% .
I have 60% of the planned position.

Selling Us NatGas December at 3.44$.
Comment: I explain the position size because some people just doesn't seem to understand.
The 3 most important factor here is timing, volume and position size. All the other meaningless : like new high, weather, Putin etc.
1. Timing: we will top somewhere here in this daily cycle. MAybe topped today. Maybe only tomorrow. Maybe Wed. But this week we will top.
2. Volume I want to see a big volume in the breakout. Today we have the big volume no question. It doesn't mean smartmoney was buying. It means they were selling and hedge funds + retail was buying.
3. Position size:
I'm going to go up to a 40% margin impact in NatGas with this short.If you play DGAZ you should go only 20% margin impact maximum. Or maybe 13,33% maybe even better. It's important if we break higher I don't want to be margin called. This is the only way to have a chance to sell near to the top. So if my account is a 1000$ account when I sell the 100% planned position my margin impact will be only 400$.
Comment: SO now as I have the 60% of the planned position it means my margin impact is 400$ x 0,6 = 240 $. If I have the other 40% short tomorrow or Wednesday my margin impact will be raised by 160$ to 400$. That is still 40% margin impact of my whole capital. I don't say we will not pop up to 3,5$. But the chance is much higher now for a decline a very high for an IC decline.
Comment: Selling the next 20%. We are at 80%.
US NatGas december 2016 at 3.41
Comment: If we have a daily swing high I will add the last 20%.
Below 3.15$.
snapshot
Comment: We ha a swing high today. I sell 20% more so we are at 100%.
I will set a stop for the whole position at 3.3$ and wait. If I'm right in 15 trading days we will have a steep decline.
snapshot
Trade closed: stop reached
Comment: It's closed now stop was triggered. Try to find the next entry. At the next swing high maybe.
great!
+1 Reply
You're only putting 20% into the short, or the first buy is 20% and the next buys will happen over the next couple days?
+2 Reply
I'm selling 20% the planned amount
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
And will sell if we go higher. but I think maybe one more day and that's it. Or we top today and end the day in the red.
We will see what Doha is betting
Reply
bertcoin PRO chartwatchers
I need to learn your patience!
+1 Reply
Looking good so far... did you mean 3.12 or 3.42?
+1 Reply
I think Arpi meant 3.12
+2 Reply
The dec cfd at saxo is at 3.42$. But the continuous contract is at 3.12.
+2 Reply
watsonzou26 chartwatchers
$0.30 Con....that's nice
+1 Reply
watsonzou26 watsonzou26
Sorry $0.20 Con. between Nov. and Dec.
+1 Reply
watsonzou26 watsonzou26
But Dec.$3.42 haven't been touched so far, right(i saw high $3.409)?
+1 Reply
typo
it was 3.4
just posting at 5 places sorry
Reply
watsonzou26 chartwatchers
Thanks for clarifying....
+1 Reply
DS77 chartwatchers
Thanks for clarifying
+1 Reply
Hello. Thanks for the chart.
+1 Reply
Thanks for the updates. Finally the moment is coming.
+1 Reply
I apprecaite your charts. I haven't looked at Nat Gas i a while. I thought the Nat Gas cycle was 18-24 days. If your chart is your correct the cycles shown above would be very stretched at 56,53 and now on day 38. If we are on day 38 now, and the cycles are stretched to 50ish then perhaps its not too early to jump into Nat Gas?
+1 Reply
Too late to buy. We are starting to short it and closed the longs already.
If you buy you might get 0.1-0.2$ but the risk getting caught in the intermediate decline is high.
It will fall 10-15 days. Going to look like going below 1.6$.
Reply
Hi Arpi, could you please explain what is the logic behind price coming back down to 200 SMA? thank you
+1 Reply
Thanks for the update. Since you are sell the gas at this level are you planning to buy DGAZ ?
+1 Reply
Too high the margin for that at saxo. I'm simply selling US NatGas Dec.
But you can buy DGAZ.
Reply
archie123 chartwatchers
Ah OK, is helpful to understand that DGAZ is not attractive given Saxo. Thanks.
Really appreciate your posts -- informative and instructive -- thanks for your efforts.
+1 Reply
Dude - it's 12am over there! Have a glass of wine to celebrate the topping of natty and get some rest! See you Monday to watch the drop!
+1 Reply
LOL. You are here also.
Reply
snapshot

Look at DGAZ volume....
Smartmoney was buying today! Highest volume this year.
+1 Reply
hittkts chartwatchers
you are heading into winter. moving averages and technicals wont mean anything. all weather driven for next 4 months. market retreated after a very warm weather model run.
+1 Reply
It's a heavily manipulated market. I will post a weather related chart soon...
Reply
hittkts chartwatchers
cool. i actually like short now. weather looks to warm going into winter. pattern doesnt support sustained cold .....yet anyway.
Reply
watsonzou26 chartwatchers
The map/chart of weather forecast for winter will be great. Thanks in advance.
Reply
webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
very interesting stuff... thanks robin hood... man u r cranking out charts today.... ;)
+1 Reply
Woman, it was a post of yetserday...
:D
Reply
webmiztriz PRO chartwatchers
ha! well .. im playing catchup ;)
+2 Reply
It hit the 2.618 FIB also from bottom to first cycle high :D
+1 Reply
Nothing hits the 2.618 without retracing
+1 Reply
Volume was red. why don't you say smart money sold and retail traders bought?
+1 Reply
NatGas: Smartmoney was selling . Retail was buying.
DGAZ is the opposite: smartmoney was buying. Retail was selling.
Reply
al.calgary chartwatchers
I know DGAZ is bear of NG. The volume of DGAZ at Oct7 is a big red bar. That means huge number of shares ( by smartmoney) was sold i.e. selling their long in Dgaz or short position in NG. The question is how do you know smart money bought but not sold? :) I can say the smart money sold their dgas shares and novice traders bought them. thanks :)
+2 Reply
good stuff Arpi...
+2 Reply
It looks like we will see $3.30 at least in coming days.
+1 Reply
Thank you for the answer about the 200 ma, another question, sometimes it takes months even a year without price crossing the 200 sma. My question is this: why would this time it would go to the 200 sma? Is it because we have spent almost 3 DCL without touching it? Since we've just printed a higher high, it could appear to be unlikely. thank you.
+1 Reply
If I'M right we will have an intermediate decline now.
At ICLs the daily chart usually tags the 200 SMA. Big players are loading up at ICL lows. They have a manual:
"Buy at or near to the mean." The mean is the 200 SMA.
Reply
chartwatchers PRO chartwatchers
It was working in oil. It might work in gold now.
And should work here in Natty.
Reply
I did an analysis out of interest yesterday. Seems the techincals is on the side of a short. I suspect a retest of Fridays high before the drop.
Natural gas intermediate top
+2 Reply
I was working on the exact same chart yesterday. It really gives confidence when other members of the community have similar views. :)
I have a strong feeling that price may test 3.276 level, which will also complete beautiful 3 drives pattern that started at the low of wave 4 before falling.
I opened a small position @ Friday's high in case market decides to reverse from there. For targets, I am at least looking at $2.5 level. Cheers.
+1 Reply
Viking83 PRO sandhusukhjit
A lot of people think that it was a significant breakout. Well, a long term resistance was broken, which is good for the long-term bullish view of Natty... But, the current cycle show that it met the upper resistance zone and failed to close above.
 
Reply
But Monday will tell. I think a lot will be on the wrong side of this trade. I await price action on Monday and as soon as I see that its not making a higher price... I load up the short-truck.
Reply
rsi divergence
Reply
Supporting your view. Monthly TSI has reached levels of yearly cycle decline start. There will be short lived upthrust to tag the 50 MA on the monthly, but being in Month 7 it is time to soon start the yearly cycle decline.
Reply
I calculated that for time to balance the price, it shows 13.10.2016 08:00. I would enter after this date and time by looking at the price action. more safer.
Reply
We will have a steep decline. By the end of next week we might be below 2.8$.
+2 Reply
Sound great plan. Arpi. My $3.30(Nov.) target seems very close. Wait for today's close. i am starting to generate my engine.
Reply
watsonzou26 watsonzou26
In my picture, Nov. $3.42 still possible.
Reply
selling volume in DGAZ is actually higher then buying volume. where did you see that?
Reply
I'm unsure what to make of this?

"Comment: Selling the next 20% .
I have 60% of the planned position."

Has he entered 60% of his DGAZ position?
Reply
Not DGAZ. Too high the margin for DGAZ at saxo.
I was selling US Natgas Dec.
Reply
Averaging down??? Big no-no!!! The charts are telling you whats happening not the why. A news event could see you get a limit up day (hurricane Matthew for example). You're fighting a clean breakout
Reply
chartwatchers PRO stockoperatorjm
For me it's not clean. It's a retail-sucker-in breakout.
And not averaging down. I was selling on the 2 possible daily cycle top.
Reply
"" I explain the position size because some people just doesn't seem to understand. "", why you are trying to make them understand?
+1 Reply
DS77 MetalCruisers
He selling into a breakout and averaging down...given this could end in a bloodbath I think it's a courtesy he's paying to those that follow his trades... many of which used leveraged vehicles like DGAZ in this case. From what I gathered he's is usually early in his entry, legging in and stalling the entry of those that follow him is actually helpful to those that follow.

He think we pivot and get under NG 2.80 this week. I can say that I find 3.60 this week as likely as 2.80... that just one mans opinion. I do agree that this looks like the end of the rally. I think we will test the breakout level this week and look for confirmation there. Apri knows his stuff, but think he unnecessarily makes calls like "$USD under 93 by Friday" or "NG under 2.80 by Friday". He should let his charts and ideas speak for themselves and leave the gambling type calls out of it. Just my $.02

+3 Reply
Sir, If you would know what is his acc size.. you would understand that he is not concerned about DD.. you have to understand that for some ppl here funds are just unlimited at some point.
I am not talking about entry n stuff that can always be better, all I am saying is that some people just don't care when u have money and u can afford to play. Everyone has to trade according to his own plan, if this ends up to be abloodbath fo someone, well congratulations, you can blame yourself for being a blind sheeple.

Regards.
+1 Reply
DS77 MetalCruisers
We will agree about sheeple and their $... as for how much money someone may or may not have I find that irrelevant. I don't know anyone who has and retains money when they don't have respect for it. He has posts from 2 weeks ago saying he was short the USD in every way possible. We all know how that ended.
Think he abandoned that trade. I also don't know many people who have made money long term by chasing trades or entering poorly on a consistent basis. I guess if what your saying is that money doesn't matter to him and therefore these trades mean nothing.. then I think that's good intel for the sheeple that follow him to know. He does talk about money management though... so odd to think he's not at least trying to adhere to it. I don't follow traders.. I do come to read thoughts and ideas of those like Apri that have good insight.

Happy trading...I've enjoyed your perspective on gold !
+1 Reply
And yes, he is Emotional trader.. but that is fine.. I like emotions... emotions in forex is what makes us addicted to it.
Reply
It is going for the Monthly 50MA, may even shot over it, but it is not going maintain that level. Monthly TSI has reached levels of yearly cycle decline start. Being in Month 7 it is time to soon start the yearly cycle decline.
Reply
This is just a EIA report, are you still it as short?
Reply
but you still believe it will come down at this levels? Thanks
Reply
yes
Reply
Going to re-enter?
Reply
yes very soon
Reply
DGAZ: i also just reached my SL accordingly. Pitty but that is the game
Reply
ice_holly01 PRO Benztownguy
DGAZ: SL triggered as well.
Reply
the upswing just stopped right at the MA 200 - chart below. got my stop above at 3.340

snapshot


Reply
nexuz nexuz
sry forgot to mention - weekly ma 200!
Reply
shinsky nexuz
Thanks for the reminder! Looks like it rejected it. Hoping it will continue down.
+1 Reply
hi Arpi, I think it is definitely topping. I waiting to see a failure swing on daily RSI for an entry. It might paint it with this move up.
Reply
Still unsure why short a bullish chart?
Reply
You went in too early. This is the breakout you should be shorting.
+1 Reply
DS77 traderzaius
I'm sure he's tired of hearing it, but he's often early to his trades. See Gold as the latest example. He could really improve his gains and limit his losses if he could learn better entry timing. Kind of odd that he jumped in this week, took his time legging in, but still manages to be so early he got stopped out.
Reply
Thats why his most successful trades are with tools he can enter and hold for a few weeks such as LABU. Cycles trading is not great at entries and exits but spot the bottoms and tops better than anyone (although its usually in a larger scale).
Reply
shinsky traderzaius
Of course in hindsight you can say there's a better entry, but it's impossible to always pick the exact top and exact bottom.

He's probably tired of hearing everyone bitch and complain about a SL. Now, since he provided it, you guys are STILL bitching and complaining about the SL.

You guys can never be pleased. As such with retail. Always complaining and never being grateful
+1 Reply
After all it was a good call. Even shorting at 3.13.
+1 Reply
traderzaius chartwatchers
yes I made good money
Reply
In the mind of a navel gazing stock operator:
1/...... Where are the cycles when you need them?
2/.......Why is navel lint always blue?
Reply
Hello. Sorry to hear to be stopped. Now can be shortable i wonder although technicals dont work on NatGas :)

Historic Resistance + RSI weekly divergence
+3 Reply
Think 3.60 looks like the next area for a potential short. May still happen this week even.
Reply
shame that you closed, I think the short flaps now in accumulation finona 3.50
Reply
Stopped out. If I don't stop I can listen to freakouters if it pops to 3.60.
Will sell it again very soon.
Reply
Chirurgo chartwatchers
therefore remains convinced that it will go down, you enter only the most on? I stay in, I think you get up 3:46, from June them targets 3.10 and 2.80
Reply
DS77 Chirurgo
Feels like the set up is still in place. Think we see NG slide this week. Is there another swing high now in effect? Can you tell me how you indentify them in this scenario? Thanks in advance. I no guy some DGAZ Friday under 4.00. Looking to add this week if we see follow through to the downside like I'm thinking.
Reply
Look for the unfilled gap (top @ 3.444) from 2014 December, it may will be filled.
+1 Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out