chartwatchers
Long

NatGas - Confirmed bottom

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
1184 31 35
Today we have the significant breakout above the blue trendline.
This is the confirmation that NatGas bottomed. The DCL occured on the 12.08.
We are on day 9. We have 2 comfortable weeks to run from now. (Maybe 3) And by now you know Natty likes the green candles.
In the next 2 weeks we should take out 3$ and run to new highs.
Indicators
RSI is just entering to overbought but it can be overbought for a month.
MACD had just crossed over it has weeks to go up.
TSI             is the same : it just crossed over.

I missed the last DCL unfortunately. This time NatGAs just almost tested back the FIBO 50 and the breakout.
And we entered at that "almost level".
The next resistance is at 2.994 : the previous cycle high.
On NATgas on the option that expire September 27th. (current expiration is tomorrow)
the open interest is interesting in that there are substantially more open interest puts than calls.
on 18 strikes from 2.85 up and down
the open interest in calls is 15,367
the open interest in puts is 34,123
this from NYMEX but totals updated through yesterday.
comparing this to the COT commitment of traders
the commodity funds are very short 39% long
the trade (commercials) are very long 57% long
my feeling is this large put interest is very supportive of price.
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DavidEwen PRO
3 months ago
Hello Arpi: For my own understanding and other followers could you comment on the impact on Gas and Oil if the Fed Reserve is aggressive suggestioning a rate hike tomorrow?
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chartwatchers PRO DavidEwen
3 months ago
If they weill be very aggressive - what I don't think - the dollar will strengthen and we might test back the 10 EMA again or break marginally.
But they will buy that drop by the close.
I dont think the FED will be too hawkish tomorrow. The elections are here.
Why to stress the markets. Yellen wants this job.
If she messes up the markets and it starts to fall hard is not good for Clinton.
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DavidEwen PRO chartwatchers
3 months ago
Makes sense, thank you Arpi
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bertcoin PRO chartwatchers
3 months ago
If Yellen raised rates, she'd end up like Vince Foster, not just out of a job. 8-\
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Viking83 PRO
3 months ago
Took some profit today after 4 green days and moved into ERX. Good analysis, keep it up!
+1 Reply
nbn007 PRO
3 months ago
broke the line and the price did not accelerate...
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rere04
3 months ago
yes in fact it went the other way...
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Does anybody know why UGAZ under performing NGAS and actually moving in different direction at the moment?
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ice_holly01 pbartashevich
3 months ago
Have the same question. NGAS is down 1% currently.
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pbartashevich PRO ice_holly01
3 months ago
UGAZ you meant. I hope it will catch up next day. Probably ETF implementation technical reasons.
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ice_holly01 pbartashevich
3 months ago
Yes, I have UGAZ as well.
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ArtFly
3 months ago
Today, a large move down...
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
Hitting some stops on partial positions today. Broke through but won't close above previous high of 2.906. Maybe buy some a little lower to replace if you are confident on the $3 target. Hard to not take GOOD profits and set on the sidelines for that last ,1....
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glewing123 PRO
3 months ago
Thoughts on movment today; is it going to retest $2.80 area...?
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It is printed key reversal bar. So It can go much lower. I sold UGAZ at 39.10 with some profit. Will see how far it will fall to get back in.
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MC2016 PRO
3 months ago
Yup, a pretty dramatic drop today. Could it be a pull-back to the break of recent trend? Would be good to get your view Arpi. Thanks. MC
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
Hey everybody. Arpi is posting on Twitter while they figure out why he got banned from posting ideas. NatGas/UGAZ post at https://twitter.com/ArpiKerenyi.
+1 Reply
Bearbud bertcoin
3 months ago
Thanks Bertcoin, I was wondering why I haven't seen any updates from him.
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ArtFly bertcoin
3 months ago
Thank you very much. Why he was banned? you now?
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ArtFly bertcoin
3 months ago
Thank you very much. Why he was banned? you now?
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ArtFly bertcoin
3 months ago
Arpi wrote on Twitter yesterday that update Oil , Natgas and stocks after market close. I can not see any update on Twitter. Do you know why?
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bertcoin PRO ArtFly
3 months ago
PM
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ArtFly bertcoin
3 months ago
What is PM?
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bertcoin PRO ArtFly
3 months ago
Private message.
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ArtFly bertcoin
3 months ago
Thank very much for you explanation and PM. Now I know. Pilot ;-)
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Bearbud bertcoin
3 months ago
Hey Bertcoin, I don't see many updates from Arpi on Twitter is there somewhere else we can follow his updates? Some one mentioned TV but no other details.

Thanks
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bertcoin PRO Bearbud
3 months ago
PM
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ArtFly
3 months ago
Arpi, could you comment: how large you expect a correction ? I opened long rather high after breaking the channel. Now I get a little nervous ....
+1 Reply
AKIN007
3 months ago
Please update/Comment this idea too on TV Thanks Sir
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bertcoin PRO
3 months ago
I bailed out of last week on UGAZ as we slipped below the trend line to preserve profits. Looks like we're in a little bit of downward channel with a bearish crossover of MACD and steady drop in RSI since your last post. Good time to reload back in, or a little bit of an extended correction for NGAS?
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