chartwatchers
Long

NatGas - Confirmed bottom

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
1189 31 37
Today we have the significant breakout above the blue trendline .
This is the confirmation that NatGas bottomed. The DCL occured on the 12.08.
We are on day 9. We have 2 comfortable weeks to run from now. (Maybe 3) And by now you know Natty likes the green candles.
In the next 2 weeks we should take out 3$ and run to new highs.
Indicators
RSI is just entering to overbought but it can be overbought for a month.
MACD had just crossed over it has weeks to go up.
TSI is the same : it just crossed over.

I missed the last DCL unfortunately. This time NatGAs just almost tested back the FIBO 50 and the breakout.
And we entered at that "almost level".
The next resistance is at 2.994 : the previous cycle high.
On NATgas on the option that expire September 27th. (current expiration is tomorrow)
the open interest is interesting in that there are substantially more open interest puts than calls.
on 18 strikes from 2.85 up and down
the open interest in calls is 15,367
the open interest in puts is 34,123
this from NYMEX but totals updated through yesterday.
comparing this to the COT commitment of traders
the commodity funds are very short 39% long
the trade (commercials) are very long 57% long
my feeling is this large put interest is very supportive of price.
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Hello Arpi: For my own understanding and other followers could you comment on the impact on Gas and Oil if the Fed Reserve is aggressive suggestioning a rate hike tomorrow?
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If they weill be very aggressive - what I don't think - the dollar will strengthen and we might test back the 10 EMA again or break marginally.
But they will buy that drop by the close.
I dont think the FED will be too hawkish tomorrow. The elections are here.
Why to stress the markets. Yellen wants this job.
If she messes up the markets and it starts to fall hard is not good for Clinton.
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DavidEwen PRO chartwatchers
Makes sense, thank you Arpi
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bertcoin PRO chartwatchers
If Yellen raised rates, she'd end up like Vince Foster, not just out of a job. 8-\
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Took some profit today after 4 green days and moved into ERX. Good analysis, keep it up!
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broke the line and the price did not accelerate...
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yes in fact it went the other way...
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Does anybody know why UGAZ under performing NGAS and actually moving in different direction at the moment?
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ice_holly01 PRO pbartashevich
Have the same question. NGAS is down 1% currently.
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UGAZ you meant. I hope it will catch up next day. Probably ETF implementation technical reasons.
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ice_holly01 PRO pbartashevich
Yes, I have UGAZ as well.
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Today, a large move down...
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Hitting some stops on partial positions today. Broke through but won't close above previous high of 2.906. Maybe buy some a little lower to replace if you are confident on the $3 target. Hard to not take GOOD profits and set on the sidelines for that last ,1....
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Thoughts on movment today; is it going to retest $2.80 area...?
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It is printed key reversal bar. So It can go much lower. I sold UGAZ at 39.10 with some profit. Will see how far it will fall to get back in.
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Yup, a pretty dramatic drop today. Could it be a pull-back to the break of recent trend? Would be good to get your view Arpi. Thanks. MC
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Hey everybody. Arpi is posting on Twitter while they figure out why he got banned from posting ideas. NatGas/UGAZ post at https://twitter.com/ArpiKerenyi.
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Bearbud bertcoin
Thanks Bertcoin, I was wondering why I haven't seen any updates from him.
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ArtFly bertcoin
Thank you very much. Why he was banned? you now?
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ArtFly bertcoin
Thank you very much. Why he was banned? you now?
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ArtFly bertcoin
Arpi wrote on Twitter yesterday that update Oil , Natgas and stocks after market close. I can not see any update on Twitter. Do you know why?
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PM
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ArtFly bertcoin
What is PM?
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Private message.
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ArtFly bertcoin
Thank very much for you explanation and PM. Now I know. Pilot ;-)
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Bearbud bertcoin
Hey Bertcoin, I don't see many updates from Arpi on Twitter is there somewhere else we can follow his updates? Some one mentioned TV but no other details.

Thanks
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PM
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Arpi, could you comment: how large you expect a correction ? I opened long rather high after breaking the channel. Now I get a little nervous ....
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Please update/Comment this idea too on TV Thanks Sir
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I bailed out of last week on UGAZ as we slipped below the trend line to preserve profits. Looks like we're in a little bit of downward channel with a bearish crossover of MACD and steady drop in RSI since your last post. Good time to reload back in, or a little bit of an extended correction for NGAS?
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