pparmy1991
Long

Possible short term bottom, need confirm on the long run

FX:NGAS   Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
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3
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There is a chance that NG bottomed today by breaking the previous low and we saw divergence on 4hr chart. But there is still possibility to have one more leg down after correction. If price action is not strong when reaching 2.75 level, would close part of the positions and wait for the bottom signal.
Dec 21
Comment: We are reaching oversold area for daily as well, just as the beginning of 2017
Dec 22
Comment: Played as expected so far, let's see the momentem next week.
Dec 22
Comment: I think next week might be the key for trend reversal. Still keeping my longs bought around 2.64 level, let's see if we break through 2.75 solidly.
Dec 25
Comment: Guys, it seems like it is trying to break 2.75. 1 or 2 more days for the final confirmation. If 2.75 level holds, that means trend reversal is in play, the first target is 3.3 level. Merry Christmas!
Dec 26
Comment: It seems like revisiting the bottom. I will be closing my longs and wait.
Dec 26
Comment: I think 2.5 will be revisited, trade with care if you are selling.
Dec 27
Comment: I still don't think we are done yet. This is the reason I don't want to go short at this moment even there is a chance for good profit, too risky.
Dec 28
Comment: Today will be the key, let's see the momentem!
Dec 28
Comment: Now it's certain that the trend reverses, the first potential target is around 3.3. Looks like not able to find a trade this week. This is typical for natty, once it decides to go, it goes in one direction!
Dec 29
Comment: The correction is expected and almost done. Enter the ship from here, but the position for UGAZ cannot be heavy at this moment, since we need enough buffer for holding over the weekend. Stop loss is around 2.86, below the left support area.
I will be adding more if we see big correction next week or the week after, even with less profit but less risk as well. Don't feel mad or regret, trade with care!

Dec 29
Comment: Don't be panic about the pin bar on Daily chart, this is just the beginning of the rally, so it's a trap, not a reversal sign!

Jan 01
Comment: Good, as expected. I have said the pin bar is a trap, lots of traders are afraid last Friday.
Jan 02
Comment: Daily chart reaching top of the BB, we may see 1-2 days price ranging before breakout. I will be finding good place to add long.

Jan 03
Comment: Added small long position at 2.97 with tight stop loss, next target is 3.15.

Jan 03
Comment: Reaching middle line of BB on 4hr.

Jan 04
Comment: I am almost certain that it is going up during the day time. Let's see what price can we close at the end of the week.

Jan 04
Trade closed manually: Trade manually closed. With today's dump I think winter rally is ruled out.
Jan 04
Comment: But as of now the trend is not changed, will step aside for a while waiting for signals.
Jan 04
Comment: Jeez, glad I took the small loss. With the winter rally ruled out, I will be only place short term trade and taking profit accordingly.
Jan 04
Comment: Retrospect: Should've checked NATGASUSD as well, it had a more clear picture. NGAS shows lots of weird spikes. A perfect flag in the middle before the dump, there was hope that buyers would show up around 2.92 level but never did. Now the medium term direction is in doubt, only consider short term trade on UGAZ/DGAZ, at this level, not worth to hold over the weekend. Tomorrow possible short term breaking down, since the volume told us buyers are escaping today.

Jan 04
Comment: Spend sometime checking on USOIL, we may get a medium term selling opportunities soon, will post idea once I found topping signals. Don't rush in because the price is high! Good luck.
Jan 07
Comment: Today's bounce might be just a correction before heading south. Tomorrow we shall know whether this thing going up or down. Up to now, both scenarios are possible.
Jan 08
Comment: About to break down! Trade with care

Jan 08
Comment: Nice, as expected! But only takes short term trades, lock in the profit based on your own techniques!
Jan 08
Comment: Take out the trade as small profit at the end of today. Possible one more back up, might be getting a better trade latter

Great call.
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Now im long and probably wrong. I will take the heat to 2.5
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Nice! I think that this is no reason to go UP for natgas so it is going to dive!
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@rafalo, Don't get me wrong, I am still bullish in long term. This is only a short term trade to 2.50, take profit accordingly, you might get pull backs frequently.
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rafalo pparmy1991
@pparmy1991, Thanks. I'm curious what is the fundamental reason to be bullish?
No I'm out for long time with this crazy natgas.
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@rafalo, The fundamental reason will be that big players publish some bullish news like hot summer, or middle east problem. By that time it's too late to be bullish
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How will we know? when its up or down 3 percent, I mean come on dude, that is vague!
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@TomPower, When you are scared, just step aside, that's simple, right? Just let it up or down. I only place my trade when "I personally think" it worths a shot.
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78$ out already
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@JiaBao, xiongdi, well done!!;)
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