LEONES
Short

Nat Gas takes a break

NYMEX:NGJ2013   NATURAL GAS FUTURES
773 80 4
NATGAS reached resistance level and reacted with a blow-off day bar which means that the bears are in control now or bulls have started taking some profits. Price is poised to move towards the 1/1 Gann .
UGA (gasoline) is not so easy to trade. Low open interest

UNG...However, is much more popular with option traders.
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
interesting, same pattern. natgas is in uptrend, this is just a short term trade
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Broad picture .. two lines of support (chart above and this chart)
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hit the upper resistance
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Fisher is showing that we may see some kind of recoil tomorrow.
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
never used Fisher, useful?
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You look for divergence/convergence shapes and patterns of the tops/bottoms
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Like this... candle engulfs yesterdays and continues trend down.
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ozatrading QuantitativeExhaustion
it might be the case...but if we go to 3.944 first. we wont see price up anymore. we have lot of volume for sale after this point.
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ozatrading ozatrading
http://i.imgur.com/JqQogCp.png
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good point..
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CRK and Natural gas Diverge.

I like this play .....Here is chart i did not too long ago. Timing is right here for a pullback in price.
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Just broke 4.00.. a short term parabolic peak.
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still hugging a key swing line....
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what do you think? failed to break above resistance line
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
I think it's a good sign
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well i like it much more now that I get to wait over the weekend. Hopefully price stays in this tight upper range
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Tomorrow seems to be the day for natgas
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
I think there are a lot of opportunities tomorrow
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It's make or break. If Nat Gas can't break the resistance by the time US markets close, it's headed much lower
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
yes seems breaking now
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I would take profits here. Up 66% on my options.
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Expect big drop from tomorrow?
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LEONES PRO alexandra.tatrai.3
now..
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lol
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I took the profits off the table. That was a big drop today
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
on your long calls?
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no, I went with near dated puts. Not too bad
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
I take it your thinking we may get a big green candle to begin a possible double top formation today? Cashing in yesterday was a good idea.
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Not sure about a double top. I'm going for more action today. Did not fill my option orders yet, still on the bid.
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
don't the double top, but today reaction is not very good
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you're thinking flat consolidation?
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
yes could be or also break up side, not clear at all
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How about US Dollar? might find some clues
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
nat gas strongly up, im probably going to reverse if it trades above the pivot high
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I agree with that
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
what do you mean, dollar is getting stronger
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Looks like it wants to go higher... Up and over again right now
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
it has been really cold here in the east US the past few days. Not good for reserves. Normally we get a number on friday but short week with holiday. Do not know if they will report on Thur. I heard Germany had an unusually cold winter this year and Moscow just got hit with blizzard. The weather may be the story here. May puts are looking better to me.
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Yeah... weather a big trigger. I see the jet stream moving higher here in the US, bringing in warmer weather this weekend. Not sure about Russia... I'll check if they will warm up next week
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
Following your strategy JR, I was looking at those way out of the money puts. May13 17 are going for a .01
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You know what it is Moscow and US cold weather... it's over this weekend. Maybe back to the puts we go

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/27612.html
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What about Putin and Cyprus/Europe. Any strain here and Nat Gas goes much much higher
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
Buying more time is not a bad idea I think.
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oh yeah for sure... If UNG falls to 19.50 before April 10th those May's will bag you 10x profit.
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However, you need to see a break below 20 before mid April for this trade to really work.
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
I am thinking that may happen after those Aprils expire on the 13th
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Better bump up the strike price then... you could lose out on Time Value
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littleriver QuantitativeExhaustion
Taking a small gamble on those May 13 18 puts. Today is good buy.
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if you think you can hit 19 before April 20th .. still on the fence
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
or maybe you are right, consolidation
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Seems a bull trap today...
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Chart?
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nice one
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
should be good to sell in the short term
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but needs to close below yesterday low...4 is a critical point for Natgas..
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
snapshot
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http://i.imgur.com/EoiVFJ0.png check this out...what you guys think....also JR..might be that what u were talking about (fisher indicator).
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LEONES PRO ozatrading
no idea what does it mean?
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nice bearish candle top
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LEONES PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
yes, not sure is going to be filled today maybe next week...Easter approaching
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warm weather coming in 10 day forecast for most of the colder climate regions in Norther Hemisphere
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