NG: Natural Gas: UGAZ: Getting Ready For A Move Up?

NG: Potential bottom is forming at $1.78 level. Natural Gas July futures contracts were trading lower on Tuesday finding support at $1.78. MACD histogram is at the crossing point pointing toward higher prices. Near-term resistance is seen near $1.978, a 38.2% Fib retracement level of the recent move down, with $2.048 being a 50% Fib retracement. RSI is also forming a bottoming pattern pointing toward higher levels. Further consolidation is possible until we have a bullish EIA report showing decline in storage.
Thursday EIA report is still expected to show a triple digit build above 100 bcf, which is bearish , but a decline in storage is expected to show next week, as consumption is rising.
Fundamentals are improving, based on June hot weather and economy reopening by 3rd week of June. This week could be a turning point for natural gas .
A longer-term bearish factor for natural gas is a potential increase in oil production. As crude oil prices are moving higher, shale producers may ramp up their production, which in turn may lead to another cycle of oversupply for both commodities .
In general, NG prices are expected to go higher from here, reaching toward $2.5 level by year end (based on forward curve), which is 40% lower than prior year, as high supply may keep a lid on the rally.
However, if we are going to get extreme heat this summer, $2.5 price level may be reached sooner, possibly moving into a month of August.