COVID Lockdowns Weigh on 2Q Guidance; Set to Recover in 2H
Maintain BUY and Decreasing PT to $35
NIO
We are maintaining our BUY rating and decreasing PT to $35 (was $40) after NIO reported in line 1Q:22 revenue, with margins below expectations. With 1Q deliveries (25,768) preannounced, investors primarily focused on 1Q margin, 2Q guidance and 2H outlook. Vehicle margin declined to 18.1% in 1Q, down 310bps y/y and 280bps q/q, 136bps/86bps below Tiger/consensus, mainly due to increased battery cost and revenue mix shift. The company guided 2Q deliveries to 23,000 – 25,000, decreasing from 25,768 in 1Q, primarily due to supply chain disruptions caused by COVID. Despite the supply-side constraints, NIO's order intake reached a record-high in May, suggesting robust demand. 2Q vehicle margin should further decrease from 1Q, as battery cost, which peaked in April, is now linked to raw material price based on the new procurement agreement with the supplier. Although NIO increased prices by RMB 10K for all models in May, 2Q deliveries are still pre-price-adjustment vehicles. However,
as production recovers in 2H and battery raw material price declines, gross margin should start
to recover in 3Q. NIO will start delivering ET5 in September, and ES7 in August. NIO plans to
start delivering the mass-market brands in 2H:24.
Overall, beyond the temporary supply chain constraints, we see robust volume and margin recovery in 2H as NIO starts to deliver two new NT2.0 models (ET5 and ES7) with higher gross margins. Current valuation of 2.0x '23E sales is also attractive compared with TSLA's 7.2x. Maintain BUY.
Maintain BUY and Decreasing PT to $35
NIO
We are maintaining our BUY rating and decreasing PT to $35 (was $40) after NIO reported in line 1Q:22 revenue, with margins below expectations. With 1Q deliveries (25,768) preannounced, investors primarily focused on 1Q margin, 2Q guidance and 2H outlook. Vehicle margin declined to 18.1% in 1Q, down 310bps y/y and 280bps q/q, 136bps/86bps below Tiger/consensus, mainly due to increased battery cost and revenue mix shift. The company guided 2Q deliveries to 23,000 – 25,000, decreasing from 25,768 in 1Q, primarily due to supply chain disruptions caused by COVID. Despite the supply-side constraints, NIO's order intake reached a record-high in May, suggesting robust demand. 2Q vehicle margin should further decrease from 1Q, as battery cost, which peaked in April, is now linked to raw material price based on the new procurement agreement with the supplier. Although NIO increased prices by RMB 10K for all models in May, 2Q deliveries are still pre-price-adjustment vehicles. However,
as production recovers in 2H and battery raw material price declines, gross margin should start
to recover in 3Q. NIO will start delivering ET5 in September, and ES7 in August. NIO plans to
start delivering the mass-market brands in 2H:24.
Overall, beyond the temporary supply chain constraints, we see robust volume and margin recovery in 2H as NIO starts to deliver two new NT2.0 models (ET5 and ES7) with higher gross margins. Current valuation of 2.0x '23E sales is also attractive compared with TSLA's 7.2x. Maintain BUY.