Thanks to a new deal introduced on July 13, Nikola Corporation (NASDAQ: NKLA) experienced a short squeeze that helped the stock run nearly 116% last week. That said, the recent short squeeze may be a prelude to a substantial fall or even bankruptcy. In the meantime, NKLA is attempting to gain shareholders’ approval to raise its authorized shares in order to be able to raise capital by issuing new shares. With the company’s annual shareholders meeting set for August 3, shorting NKLA stock at current levels may prove to be a profitable decision as the results of the shareholders’ vote will see the stock fall drastically either due to the expected dilution or declaring bankruptcy.
NKLA Fundamentals
Financial Woes
As is, NKLA is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Currently, the company has a dwindling cash balance that is not enough to pay off its current liabilities as it has a cash ratio less than 1 at .43. Moreover, it has a negative gross margin worth triple its revenues which indicates that the company is losing substantial amounts of cash for each vehicle it sells.
At the same time, NKLA has an unsustainable cash burn rate as it burned $179 million in OCF in Q1 2023 and with $121.1 million in cash on hand, the company’s cash balance may not be enough to last the company another quarter. On that note, the company stated in its Q1 earnings that it is operating as a going concern which could see the company have a similar fate to Bed Bath & Beyond (OTC: BBBYQ) which declared bankruptcy a quarter following the introduction of going concern language in its earnings.
The Only Escape From Bankruptcy
That said, NKLA is looking to gain shareholders’ approval on a provision allowing it to double its authorized shares from 800 million to 1.6 billion to access the required funding it needs to continue its operations. According to the company’s Q1 earnings call, it has access to $243 million available under its share purchase agreement with Tumim and $200 million available on its ongoing ATM offering. However, the company is not able to issue shares to access this capital since its OS is nearly maxed out with 716.9 million shares outstanding out of the authorized 800 million.
With that in mind, it appears that NKLA’s shareholders are not that enthusiastic about that provision since the company had to adjourn its annual meeting from June 6 to August 3 to ensure that the provision passes. The reason behind the company’s decision is due to an amendment to the Delaware General Corporation Law that is expected to be effective August 1.
Once this amendment is effective the voting threshold to increase the company’s authorized shares would change from the majority of outstanding shares to the majority of shares actually voting on the provision. By doing so, the company’s management appears desperate to pass this provision which shows that NKLA’s outlook would be bleak without raising its AS.
In case the provision passes, NKLA stock may plummet significantly due to the expected dilution the stock will witness. As things stand, NKLA stock is already overvalued as its Book Value Per Share (BVPS) is $.79 which is a far cry from the stock’s current PPS of around $2. On that note, if the provision passes, the stock’s BVPS would fall to $.34 – marking a downside of 56.9%. In this way, the stock should follow suit and decline by 56.9% at least considering that it is currently overvalued. Meanwhile, if shareholders do not approve the provision, bankruptcy may be NKLA’s only option to reorganize its business as its burn rate is unsustainable due to its dwindling cash balance.
Risks
Although taking a short position in NKLA stock may lead to substantial gains, investors should note that the stock is highly shorted with a short interest of 24% and 47.6% of its float on loan which makes it prone to short squeezes as shown by its latest parabolic run last week. For this reason, investors taking a short position in the stock should set a stop loss to hedge against the risk of short squeezes occurring.
NKLA Financials
One of the most alarming figures in NKLA’s financials is its cost of revenue, which was $44 million in Q1 2023 while realizing around $11 million in revenue. This discrepancy between revenues and cost of revenues resulted in a gross loss of $32.9 million and a jaw dropping gross margin of -296%. This imbalance has drastically strained the company’s assets as its total assets decreased QoQ from $1.23 billion to $1.15 billion, due to a sharp cash balance decrease from $233.4 million to $121.12 million.
This sharp plummet is likely a result of NKLA’s gross loss and current liabilities of $276.5 million sapping its cash balance. Despite this, the company has done a tremendous job decreasing its current liabilities QoQ from $383.5 million due to declines in its accounts payable and accrued expenses. In this way, total liabilities dropped $710.1 million to $612.4 million. However, the company’s cash balance remains a fragment of its current liabilities even after accounting for its $10.6 million in restricted cash.
In terms of revenue, NKLA experienced a substantial YoY increase from $1.88 million to $11.11 million which is due to the fact that it recorded no product revenue in Q1 2022. When it comes to expenses, NKLA experienced a significant decrease from $151.74 million to $118.13 million and is expected to experience another significant decrease in expenses due to its departure from Europe. It is still worth noting that any expenses accrued will have a negative effect on the company’s already weak balance sheet. When it comes to net loss, NKLA experienced a sharp spike from $152.94 million to $169 million due to the aforementioned reasons.
Technical Analysis
NKLA Stock is in a neutral trend and has recently entered a sideways channel between $2.09 and $2.8. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish sign. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought at 67 and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover.
As for its fundamentals, NKLA’s upcoming shareholders meeting on August 3 will be a major catalyst since it would either lead to bankruptcy or mass diluting the stock to raise capital. As both are negative outcomes for current shareholders, investors could wait for the stock to break its current support at $2.26 and take short positions ahead of the upcoming shareholders’ meeting. It is also worth noting that NKLA stock is currently overvalued since its BVPS stands at only $.74 which could be a good target for investors shorting the stock.
NKLA Forecast
Taking into consideration NKLA’s dwindling cash balance, negative gross margin, and its overall financial state, it becomes abundantly clear that NKLA stock’s recent short squeeze is inconsequential. In its current situation, the passing of the provision allowing the company to double its authorized shares appears to be the only scenario where the company will continue existing. However, the company’s survival is associated with mass dilution that would see its share price plummet substantially from current levels. Given that the alternative is filing for bankruptcy, taking a short position in NKLA stock may prove to be a profitable decision, but investors should be wary of potential short squeezes and set stop losses to mitigate any potential losses.
NKLA Fundamentals
Financial Woes
As is, NKLA is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Currently, the company has a dwindling cash balance that is not enough to pay off its current liabilities as it has a cash ratio less than 1 at .43. Moreover, it has a negative gross margin worth triple its revenues which indicates that the company is losing substantial amounts of cash for each vehicle it sells.
At the same time, NKLA has an unsustainable cash burn rate as it burned $179 million in OCF in Q1 2023 and with $121.1 million in cash on hand, the company’s cash balance may not be enough to last the company another quarter. On that note, the company stated in its Q1 earnings that it is operating as a going concern which could see the company have a similar fate to Bed Bath & Beyond (OTC: BBBYQ) which declared bankruptcy a quarter following the introduction of going concern language in its earnings.
The Only Escape From Bankruptcy
That said, NKLA is looking to gain shareholders’ approval on a provision allowing it to double its authorized shares from 800 million to 1.6 billion to access the required funding it needs to continue its operations. According to the company’s Q1 earnings call, it has access to $243 million available under its share purchase agreement with Tumim and $200 million available on its ongoing ATM offering. However, the company is not able to issue shares to access this capital since its OS is nearly maxed out with 716.9 million shares outstanding out of the authorized 800 million.
With that in mind, it appears that NKLA’s shareholders are not that enthusiastic about that provision since the company had to adjourn its annual meeting from June 6 to August 3 to ensure that the provision passes. The reason behind the company’s decision is due to an amendment to the Delaware General Corporation Law that is expected to be effective August 1.
Once this amendment is effective the voting threshold to increase the company’s authorized shares would change from the majority of outstanding shares to the majority of shares actually voting on the provision. By doing so, the company’s management appears desperate to pass this provision which shows that NKLA’s outlook would be bleak without raising its AS.
In case the provision passes, NKLA stock may plummet significantly due to the expected dilution the stock will witness. As things stand, NKLA stock is already overvalued as its Book Value Per Share (BVPS) is $.79 which is a far cry from the stock’s current PPS of around $2. On that note, if the provision passes, the stock’s BVPS would fall to $.34 – marking a downside of 56.9%. In this way, the stock should follow suit and decline by 56.9% at least considering that it is currently overvalued. Meanwhile, if shareholders do not approve the provision, bankruptcy may be NKLA’s only option to reorganize its business as its burn rate is unsustainable due to its dwindling cash balance.
Risks
Although taking a short position in NKLA stock may lead to substantial gains, investors should note that the stock is highly shorted with a short interest of 24% and 47.6% of its float on loan which makes it prone to short squeezes as shown by its latest parabolic run last week. For this reason, investors taking a short position in the stock should set a stop loss to hedge against the risk of short squeezes occurring.
NKLA Financials
One of the most alarming figures in NKLA’s financials is its cost of revenue, which was $44 million in Q1 2023 while realizing around $11 million in revenue. This discrepancy between revenues and cost of revenues resulted in a gross loss of $32.9 million and a jaw dropping gross margin of -296%. This imbalance has drastically strained the company’s assets as its total assets decreased QoQ from $1.23 billion to $1.15 billion, due to a sharp cash balance decrease from $233.4 million to $121.12 million.
This sharp plummet is likely a result of NKLA’s gross loss and current liabilities of $276.5 million sapping its cash balance. Despite this, the company has done a tremendous job decreasing its current liabilities QoQ from $383.5 million due to declines in its accounts payable and accrued expenses. In this way, total liabilities dropped $710.1 million to $612.4 million. However, the company’s cash balance remains a fragment of its current liabilities even after accounting for its $10.6 million in restricted cash.
In terms of revenue, NKLA experienced a substantial YoY increase from $1.88 million to $11.11 million which is due to the fact that it recorded no product revenue in Q1 2022. When it comes to expenses, NKLA experienced a significant decrease from $151.74 million to $118.13 million and is expected to experience another significant decrease in expenses due to its departure from Europe. It is still worth noting that any expenses accrued will have a negative effect on the company’s already weak balance sheet. When it comes to net loss, NKLA experienced a sharp spike from $152.94 million to $169 million due to the aforementioned reasons.
Technical Analysis
NKLA Stock is in a neutral trend and has recently entered a sideways channel between $2.09 and $2.8. Looking at the indicators, the stock is trading above the 200, 50, and 21 MAs which is a bullish sign. Meanwhile, the RSI is approaching overbought at 67 and the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover.
As for its fundamentals, NKLA’s upcoming shareholders meeting on August 3 will be a major catalyst since it would either lead to bankruptcy or mass diluting the stock to raise capital. As both are negative outcomes for current shareholders, investors could wait for the stock to break its current support at $2.26 and take short positions ahead of the upcoming shareholders’ meeting. It is also worth noting that NKLA stock is currently overvalued since its BVPS stands at only $.74 which could be a good target for investors shorting the stock.
NKLA Forecast
Taking into consideration NKLA’s dwindling cash balance, negative gross margin, and its overall financial state, it becomes abundantly clear that NKLA stock’s recent short squeeze is inconsequential. In its current situation, the passing of the provision allowing the company to double its authorized shares appears to be the only scenario where the company will continue existing. However, the company’s survival is associated with mass dilution that would see its share price plummet substantially from current levels. Given that the alternative is filing for bankruptcy, taking a short position in NKLA stock may prove to be a profitable decision, but investors should be wary of potential short squeezes and set stop losses to mitigate any potential losses.