AEX Index Amsterdam: Feeling very heavy

OANDA:NL25EUR   Netherlands 25
The near-term outlook (420-minute intraday) remains bearish: the recent swings have been fierce but remain below the 50% retracement at ~540. Clearing minor triggers at 532 should ring in a renewed sell-off towards 528.40 and roughly 520. With stops above 540 this is a very favourable short-setup.

For the longer term things have become a bit tricky. Albeit premature, the weekly chart does show the contours of a large H&S reversal pattern. It is not our favourite pattern, but the location and symmetry are noteworthy and should be taken into consideration. Furthermore, virtually all underlying stocks are bearish to varying degrees with the exception of Ahold-Delhaize and Philips Lights. In other words, there is a lot of market breadth for a considerable decline.

We suggest shorting the near-term and covering only partially at 520. Maintain the rest of the shorts with (liberal) trailing stops. 480, 458.50 are realistic targets if the H&S actually pans out over the next weeks.

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