My final idea on Nokia

MC_Peewee Updated   
BATS:NOK   Nokia Corporation Sponsored
Today there is an article on TradingView in regards to Nokia and AT&T.
AT&T has apparently chosen Ericsson to "modernize its U.S. telecoms network" instead of Nokia for a $14,000,000,000 contract.

Nokia share prices have plummeted almost 16% in the past 3 trading days, today being -5%.
For Nokia, that is a *gigantic* drop.
It's also kinda ... weird timing. For multiple reasons.

At the end of last week, I was looking at Nokia's daily chart and was feeling pretty certain it was about to drop again:
1) Massive volume fall off as Nokia had a slight bullish retracement.
2) It bounced off what I see as a critical former support trend line with absolutely ZERO vigor. It barcoded. At a former support.
3) After breaking 50 RSI, there was a green daily candle on that support, but by only +0.29%. Huge signal of weakness.

Looking at the weekly RSI, I felt even more certain Nokia was about to drop again:
1) Nokia has not entered oversold on the weekly since early 2020.
2) In early 2020 Nokia entered oversold, it bounced, then did it again shaving nearly 50% off the share price.

Now don't get me wrong, I didn't see a 16% drop coming, but it was pretty clear it was about to drop again is all I'm saying.
So then yesterday and today there is news about AT&T rejecting Nokia for a contract.
Yet I want to point something out that caught my eye in that above article:

"We understand that the operator took this decision for specific reasons that are not related to the quality (or lack thereof) of Nokia's products and solutions. That said, after the loss of 5G footprint at Verizon to Samsung, this is yet another significant setback for Nokia in the crucial (highest-margin) U.S. market," Peterc added.

Interestingly, this decision by AT&T was not made over Nokia's actual products/performance?
Is this not a huge red flag to anyone else? Especially considering this next part?

Now we take a look at the chart itself for another interesting bit:

Zoomed in:

Now that I've looked at it a bit more ... the 2021 'meme' spike (in Nokia at least) makes a bit more sense:

It has been almost 3 years since Nokia had that major spike in Jan 2021. From the moment it happened and ever since, I have believed there was *a lot* more to that jump than meets the eye. My hunch then and always has been that it was an attempted breakout/attempted downtrend reversal. Initially it was the smaller (pictured) inverted head and shoulders. Then it was the theory of a massive multi-decade inverted head and shoulders, yada yada. Clearly, I will admit, I must have been wrong.

To keep things simple, I am starting to believe it was just the first real breakout attempt of the ATH downtrend line.
That breakout was my largest unrealized profit trade ever and I blew it. Won't go into details on that.
Ever since, I have blown every single winning trade I've taken. (Other than my most recent PayPal trade which netted me a whopping$100.)
Anyway, enough with that.

With this weeks drop, Nokia is today sitting directly on that ATH downtrend line, which started in November of 2007.
This will be my final attempt at trading Nokia. Like the 'meme' spike, I am again entering into $7 call contracts. Their expiration is 1/16/2026. With the exception of a few hundred dollars, I am all in on my 2nd largest trade since 2021, and will continue to add more contracts as time goes on if somehow I come upon some spare cash.

On the worst news Nokia has seen in a while.
Right on the downtrend line.
I am here again.
For the final time.
"After launch on the Falcon 9, scheduled for 2024, the Nova-C lander will touch down at the Shackleton connecting ridge, near Shackleton Crater close to the south pole and begin drilling operations. The mission will also carry a lunar "hopper" designed to carry a one-kilogram payload across the lunar surface for a distence up to 2.5 km. It is planned to operate inside a permanently shadowed region, take images, and measure temperatures. In addition, it will carry a Nokia LTE 4G communications test experiment."

Early 2024 ...


Just a few fairly simple observations here.
Break of a few trend lines on good? volume.
But on bad news QUESTIONMARK?

Meanwhile after Jan 2021 any good news was met with ... downward price movement? "Bad" earnings reports dropping the price pretty hard the majority of the time?

It has been (basically) 3 straight years of downtrend...

Nokia has tested the major wedge/pennant support trend line, but only in after hours. Will it test that line (currently ~$2.80 ish) in regular?

Nokia closed the last trading day of the year out, friday, on good volume after breaking back above some strong trend lines/pivot points.

On friday in after hours, however, there was quite a strong (4%) drop.

All in all, nothing (as usual with Nokia) to be excited about, just some observations. Interesting that Nokia ON NYSE has a good volume day on bad news, but Helsinki closed almost 1% down.

3 Years of downtrend so far.

In regards to the very first screenshot of my last update, it wouldn't be fair to not include these screenshots:

Nokia hit its strongest resistance, from ATH, on the Helsinki exchange Jan 11th, 2022, and has been in downtrend since.

Also in regards to my last update, Nokia has obviously been in downtrend nearly its entire existence from ATH...But for the NYSE, it has been since Jan 27th, 2021. Granted there was obviously a slight uptrend after that, but I'm guessing that was just a "re-test" for the people who missed out on that enormous movement.
In regards to Helsinki, Nokia has been in downtrend its entire existence.
Guess it just depends on how you look at it, but me personally, Nokia has been in downtrend *far* too long. By the 'normal' metrics I have learned that investors use to analyze stocks on the NYSE and their "fair" values, Nokia is well under where it should be and has been for a while now. Especially when including inflation.

As usual, the social media areas for Nokia's stock are moving goal-posts again saying 2025/2026 will be when Nokia finds excitement. 2030, etc.

The facts:
Nokia is still under its strongest resistance.
Nokia is currently attempting to flip its 2nd strongest resistance into support.

Now, again, 'traditional trading knowledge' would say that testing such a major trend line should cause some rather large fireworks ... but Nokia is also valued at a little over $3.00 per share.


As usual:
It could go up.
It could go down.

If it goes down, I'm fully expecting wedge support to at some point be tested at around ~$2.80. If somehow the low is already concrete, then around ~$2.95-$3.00 ish.
If it goes up, it'll go (momentarily) from todays closing price of $3.44 to upwards of SIX WHOLE PENNIES to tree fiddy, then get smacked downwards again because there are 21,400 contracts expiring on the 19th at the $3.50 strike price.


Past that, it somehow makes it above $3.50 for more than a brief moment in time, look towards $3.55 before it gets smacked down again.
Past that, $3.60.
Past that, $3.65.
Past that, $3.70.
Past that, $3.75.
Past that, $3.80.
Past THAT, $3.85.



Does it test the lower boundary first
Does it "try" to "break" what is clearly a massive invisible wall at $3.50?

Surprisingly, Nokia on the NYSE actually broke out of its local micro diagonal trend line on decent volume:

On the negative side, however, Nokia is now at some pretty major resistance.
On both the NYSE and OMXHEX, Nokia historically does not get much further than 60 RSI on the daily. NYSE shows Nokia at above 62 RSI. OMXHEX shows Nokia at just under 60 and WAY more often than not 60 is rejected. In fact, OMXHEX has only been in the 70 zone twice, but barely, and dumped quite hard thereafter.
Nokia on the NYSE has not once been in 70 or above RSI since late 2021.

NYSE has hit the top of an ascending trading channel.

Last week, OMXHEX filled a gap.
Today, NYSE filled its gap in this price range.
The next higher one takes Nokia to at least $3.82.
Albeit small, there are some gaps below the current price of $3.54.

Also, just for historical purposes, wanted to post this gem:
"oh and one other, Nokia is a pathetic parody of a telco equipment company"
-Jim Cramer, December 5th, 2023.
(The day Nokia set its current low)

Nokia is at a very crucial inflection point as we speak on the chart. The next few weeks will be important. There is a major options expiration coming up Jan 19th, less than a week before the next ER. There is a huge amount of options above the $3.50 call strike price. If the usual bs happens, price will likely stay below that. If Nokia can close this week significantly higher than $3.50, however, it will be quite interesting territory.

Last update for a while.
I dunno if it will be up or down ... but I just got a weird feeling something big is about to happen with Nokia.
"Nokia strengthens U.S. commitment with launch of Nokia Federal Solutions"

Share price: lol?
see ya
For better or worse

A historic moment approaches


The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.