Our opinion on the current state of NEPIROCK(NRP)

Nepi-Rockcastle (NRP) is a prominent real estate investment trust (REIT) that plays a significant role in the European commercial property market. As a member of the Resilient group, it experienced significant market fluctuations due to external factors, including a scandalous report in 2018 and the global COVID-19 pandemic. Despite these challenges, the REIT has shown resilience and a commendable recovery trajectory.

Nepi-Rockcastle operates an extensive portfolio of over 56 shopping malls across nine Central and Eastern European countries, with significant presences in Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Hungary. Its portfolio was valued at €6.3 billion (approximately R124 billion), making it the largest property share on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) in terms of portfolio value.

The company's share price journey reflects the volatility inherent in the real estate sector and broader market sentiments. From a high of R217 in December 2017, it dropped significantly to R99 in November 2018 due to negative press and further plummeted to below R55 in March 2020 amid the pandemic. However, as of the latest updates, the share has recovered to around R103.06, indicating a stabilizing trend and investor confidence.

Financially, Nepi-Rockcastle reported a robust year in 2023, with net rental income increasing by 21% and a modest 2.3% rise in headline earnings per share (HEPS). The management highlighted an impressive collection rate of 98% of the reported revenues for 2023 as of December 31, which increased to over 99% by mid-February 2024. The company's investment property was valued at €6.8 billion as of the end of 2023, showing growth from €6.6 billion at the end of 2022. Nepi-Rockcastle also maintains a strong liquidity position, with €909 million available, including €339 million in cash and €570 million in undrawn committed credit facilities. Its loan-to-value (LTV) ratio was at 32.2% as of the end of December 2023, which is below the strategic upper threshold of 35%.

In the first quarter of 2024, the company continued its positive performance with a 12.7% increase in net operating income and a 10.5% rise in tenant sales. This growth is attributed to strong tenant performance and proactive asset management across its high-quality portfolio.

Technically, the stock has shown a strong upward trend since November 2023 and has been moving sideways since March 2024. Considering its recent performance and strategic position in the European market, Nepi-Rockcastle appears to be a valuable investment at its current levels. The company's strategic management, robust financial health, and significant market presence in a region with growing economic prospects support a positive outlook for continued growth and potentially higher investor returns.