5/22/24 - vrockstar -
NVDA
- on many fronts the stock is objectively 'cheap' when considering their 1) lead 2) moat (this includes sofware/ cuda) and 3) growth rate and seemingly unending (for now) backlog. high 30s PE, not bad for one of a kind growing EPS 50% cagr for next few yrs, 20x sales? expensive but put it in cash FCF terms, 2% yield at the low end? defensible.
the rub this q seems to be the anticipation of the new blackwell chips that could hold back ST orders for 2H buys. but let's think this thru... whatever they report won't matter - right? it's about the future/ guide. and 1) a miss gets papered over by this guide and 2) a beat + this higher order backlog ships the stock higher. this is a name that basically won't relent until there's an observable problem or demand issue w/ compute. we're nowhere near that despite what people are saying about "ai being a bubble" - most of these are the same folks that still don't own
BTC
and say "i buy blockchain tech, but not bitcoin" and so are typically the lazy types that can't fathom being wrong. make no mistake there WILL be a point to sell your nvda for a better horse. but right now it's the fastest one by a large margin. i own this into print, and will dip buy any miss without a second thought.
it's more about size mgmt into the print, not whether you should own it at all. will eventually post my full val framework in the Q, but think the 1-2y tgt here is probably $2000-$3000k stock. there's a lot of juice left. short-term, i think upside probably limited to the low $1000's. so sub $1000 is a good risk beta.
gl fam, curious on your thoughts
NVDA
- on many fronts the stock is objectively 'cheap' when considering their 1) lead 2) moat (this includes sofware/ cuda) and 3) growth rate and seemingly unending (for now) backlog. high 30s PE, not bad for one of a kind growing EPS 50% cagr for next few yrs, 20x sales? expensive but put it in cash FCF terms, 2% yield at the low end? defensible. the rub this q seems to be the anticipation of the new blackwell chips that could hold back ST orders for 2H buys. but let's think this thru... whatever they report won't matter - right? it's about the future/ guide. and 1) a miss gets papered over by this guide and 2) a beat + this higher order backlog ships the stock higher. this is a name that basically won't relent until there's an observable problem or demand issue w/ compute. we're nowhere near that despite what people are saying about "ai being a bubble" - most of these are the same folks that still don't own
BTC
and say "i buy blockchain tech, but not bitcoin" and so are typically the lazy types that can't fathom being wrong. make no mistake there WILL be a point to sell your nvda for a better horse. but right now it's the fastest one by a large margin. i own this into print, and will dip buy any miss without a second thought. it's more about size mgmt into the print, not whether you should own it at all. will eventually post my full val framework in the Q, but think the 1-2y tgt here is probably $2000-$3000k stock. there's a lot of juice left. short-term, i think upside probably limited to the low $1000's. so sub $1000 is a good risk beta.
gl fam, curious on your thoughts