$NZD v. $JPY - This WW Might Rest At #fibonacci Before Rallying
Friends,
Perhaps an interesting opp in this lesser frame (M15) where ground could possibly defined at a standard Fib contraction level, such that:
1 - 0.500-Fib = 75.589
and
2 - 0.681-Fib = 74.834
SL < 0.618-Fib
TG = 79.763 or 1-3 Line extension of WW, which ever come first.
Not worth entering unless it declines first. It's one of those all or nothing.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----
PS: Looking back, here was an interesting one:
-
DAA
.
Perhaps an interesting opp in this lesser frame (M15) where ground could possibly defined at a standard Fib contraction level, such that:
1 - 0.500-Fib = 75.589
and
2 - 0.681-Fib = 74.834
SL < 0.618-Fib
TG = 79.763 or 1-3 Line extension of WW, which ever come first.
Not worth entering unless it declines first. It's one of those all or nothing.
Best,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster
LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----
PS: Looking back, here was an interesting one:
-
DAA
.
David
....
No?
David
What VALUE would you chose to define a Stop-Loss if you were already short on this one?
David
David
- Any idea how far UP I should let it go before ignoring this SHORT trade potential?
David
1.618-FE is as good as anything else, ... and there is nothing else at your disposal (unless you have your own "Model", of course) - See chart:
David
We could do more of these sessions in the future, but it takes me a lot of facetime with computer - I like to click and walk, usually.
David
David
David
David
D.
D.
D.
" Do you enter at the NC irrespective of price action or only at the open of the next cabndel if price BACA in the direction of the intended trade? "
ANS.:
No, right at 1.618.
D.
D.
D.
D.
D.
D.
On a pure structural and Fib level, I would put a TIGHT SL at 1.618 + spread + 2-3 pips.
D.
D.
D.
D.
D.
1 - Most aggressive SL > @ 77.910 (EAGLE);
2 - Tech-based = 78.00 (as described before);
or
3 - Own risk tolerance level.
D.
D.
D.
D.
D.
D.
D.
TG unchanged.
D.
D.
77.812 should offer a significant resistance against bull, as it would also define the termination point of a Gartley pattern (referring to the recent minute W-shaped oscillation):
D.
Keep on keeping on:
D.
Probable ceiling at 77.582 (E.A.G.L.E strat)
Daid
Price recoiled from forecast range:
David
This has not been the cleanest of Geo/WW, but the bearish interest remains. I have doubt about the veracity of the larger geometry, but a smaller one completed, as shown:
David
Price just got stomped at Point 4 of this WW/Geo!
Nearing "The (green) Box":
David
Contingencies, contingencies ... The Geo is seeing an adverse excursion. This will impact the target, referring to the Geo's Off-Set Rule. For now, let's see how price behaves. Note the use of a Fib extension (FE), which I like to set as 1.414:
David Alcindor
From Twitter.LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY breaks 2-4 Line support; Opens floor to bearish targets:
$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen #forex $USD
----------
David Alcindor
Here, the chart shows the 1.414 level at which I would consider either entering or adding to a position when looking at an adverse excursion. Any higher than this level should really be a matter of personal risk management, although greater than 1.618 is where I would tend to let go of the trade and consider either another timeframe (the larger the adverse excursions, the more probable that price is falling under control of heavier financial players with sturdier price-moving capabilities, all of which always occur in higher frame levels).
David
Here, we are waiting for a significant technical event, not just that price would fall, but that it would fall past a specified level - That level is 77/756/77582 range, and more specifically, the LOW from which that range was generated, which appears to be slightly lower that this range - There should not be any expectation of decline unless price BACA below that defined low value (one could also consider tightening SL at range top + spread + 3-5 pips:
David
BACA < 77.775/77.758 will open the floor to 74.834
David
Beware, as this pair seems to not comply too well with WW/Geo lines:
David
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY breaks conditional floor; Follows higher-prob. forecast pathway:
$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen #forex
----------
David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY hits its 50% #fibonacci target; Mulls 0.618 target and 1- Line:
$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen #forex
----------
David Alcindor
From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY continues to fall as forecast; Geo likely mechanism of last decline:
$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen
----------
David Alcindor
$NZDJPY chart hit 50.0, then 61.8 #fibonacci target:
$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #kiwi #BOJ #yen #forex
David Alcindor