4xForecaster

$NZD v. $JPY - This WW Might Rest At #fibonacci Before Rallying

FX:NZDJPY   New Zealand Dollar/Japanese Yen
919 73 15
Friends,

Perhaps an interesting opp             in this lesser frame (M15) where ground could possibly defined at a standard Fib contraction level, such that:

1 - 0.500-Fib = 75.589

and

2 - 0.681-Fib = 74.834

SL < 0.618-Fib
TG = 79.763 or 1-3 Line extension of WW, which ever come first.


snapshot


Not worth entering unless it declines first. It's one of those all or nothing.


Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


-----
Twitter:
@4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
-----


PS: Looking back, here was an interesting one:
-
Hi-Prop Reversal @ 93.661 | $NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #elliottwave



DAA
.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
All updates on https://twitter.com/4xForecaster
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
Anyone had the chance to enter at that level - See chart?


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Anyone see a potential "mechanism" to bring price to 0.500-Fib?

....

No?
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Here is a potential candidate:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Just waking up....missed it! But
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
another possible entry?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes, absolutely - This would be my preferred method of detection ... But, but, but ...

What VALUE would you chose to define a Stop-Loss if you were already short on this one?


David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I'll give the answer following the question below ...

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
Question:

- Any idea how far UP I should let it go before ignoring this SHORT trade potential?

David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
ANSWER: Use what you already know to use ...

1.618-FE is as good as anything else, ... and there is nothing else at your disposal (unless you have your own "Model", of course) - See chart:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
I've charted it, now coffee in hand and watching, thank you David!
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Great.

We could do more of these sessions in the future, but it takes me a lot of facetime with computer - I like to click and walk, usually.


David
+4 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
That would be really great, but completely understand sitting in front of a computer is tiresome.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes. I do H4 and above most of the time, but teaching sessions "on-the-go" would require much smaller timeframes ... H1, M15, M5.

David
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
Vanishing Probabilities - Always look for the HIGHEST probability set-up, and NOT the most attractive one ... See chart, where I have define vanishing degrees of probability levels, purely based on what YOU know ... Fibs:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
NC at 77.84? Could be a good entry?
snapshot
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes, thank you for pointing this out ... Nodular Cores hold this very purpose as well (i.e.: aid in defining likely pivots and R/S levels).

David
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Do you enter at the NC irrespective of price action or only at the open of the next cabndel if price BACA in the direction of the intended trade?
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
So possible take 80% at Fib 0.5 and then place a trailing stop on the remaining 20%?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Exactly right.

D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
At least, that'd be my preferred method.

D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
... Unless price hits the 1-4 Line before any of the Fibs, or any lower Fib.

D.
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Ok got it.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
QUESTION:

" Do you enter at the NC irrespective of price action or only at the open of the next cabndel if price BACA in the direction of the intended trade? "

ANS.:

No, right at 1.618.


D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Right now, it stomped at the top-edge of nodule = 77.935.

D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Candle looks good ... Mirroring last one of nodule.

D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Closed at Doji (GREEN), so not as convinced a market at this time.

D.
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
If Doji was red would you have remained in the trade?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes. A Doji would represents a lesser degree of influence in my trading, but green or red, it is always a good invitational "wink" from the market.


D.
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Ok understand...so on the 5 Minute Chart where would the stop loss go if we entered at 1.618 FE?
+1 Reply
iefan PRO iefan
2 years ago
Not edge of NC plus spread plus 5 pips?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Sure, that would be a way to use occult geo and market info (spread) plus safety/slips (pips buffer of 2, 3 or 5).

D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Above it. Now, it also depends on your risk tolerance, your trade size, leverage, ... etc.

On a pure structural and Fib level, I would put a TIGHT SL at 1.618 + spread + 2-3 pips.


D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
... So, that'd be about 78.00

D.
+3 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
... Somewhat of a bearish engulfing from PRIOR candle, ... now followed-thru with this decline.


D.
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Possible path of price?
snapshot
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes. Very possible.


D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
Chart Update:


snapshot



D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
Defining your stop-loss at this point:

1 - Most aggressive SL > @ 77.910 (EAGLE);

2 - Tech-based = 78.00 (as described before);

or

3 - Own risk tolerance level.


D.
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
David how did you derive the EAGLE SL figure 77.910?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Google: "E.A.G.L.E. + 4xForecaster"


D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
https://www.google.com/search?q=EAGLE+4xforecaster&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

D.
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Roger WILCO!
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
BRB

D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Watch for 77.105 as a possible stomping value - David
+1 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Level of Point 4?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
No. This relates to a series of nodes and nodules. Best seen in M1 or M5 levels.

D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:


snapshot



D.
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
Break < 77.357 = High Prob. decline = Support-turned-resistance = Overture to lower levels/targets


D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
SL = 77.869 ... Down from 78.000.

TG unchanged.


D.
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David, technically how did you select SL = 77.869?
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
EAGLE

D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
26 AUG 2015 -Chart Update:

77.812 should offer a significant resistance against bull, as it would also define the termination point of a Gartley pattern (referring to the recent minute W-shaped oscillation):

snapshot



D.
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:


Keep on keeping on:

snapshot



D.
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Probable ceiling at 77.582 (E.A.G.L.E strat)


snapshot



Daid
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
26 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Price recoiled from forecast range:


snapshot



David
+4 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

This has not been the cleanest of Geo/WW, but the bearish interest remains. I have doubt about the veracity of the larger geometry, but a smaller one completed, as shown:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
27 AUG 2015

Price just got stomped at Point 4 of this WW/Geo!
snapshot
Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:


Nearing "The (green) Box":


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note;

Contingencies, contingencies ... The Geo is seeing an adverse excursion. This will impact the target, referring to the Geo's Off-Set Rule. For now, let's see how price behaves. Note the use of a Fib extension (FE), which I like to set as 1.414:


snapshot



David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Do you ever sleep David?
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
2 years ago
Yes.
+3 Reply
HamedAghajani PRO iefan
2 years ago
:)
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO
2 years ago
27 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter.LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY breaks 2-4 Line support; Opens floor to bearish targets:

snapshot


$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen #forex $USD
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Here, the chart shows the 1.414 level at which I would consider either entering or adding to a position when looking at an adverse excursion. Any higher than this level should really be a matter of personal risk management, although greater than 1.618 is where I would tend to let go of the trade and consider either another timeframe (the larger the adverse excursions, the more probable that price is falling under control of heavier financial players with sturdier price-moving capabilities, all of which always occur in higher frame levels).


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
27 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Here, we are waiting for a significant technical event, not just that price would fall, but that it would fall past a specified level - That level is 77/756/77582 range, and more specifically, the LOW from which that range was generated, which appears to be slightly lower that this range - There should not be any expectation of decline unless price BACA below that defined low value (one could also consider tightening SL at range top + spread + 3-5 pips:


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
30 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:


BACA < 77.775/77.758 will open the floor to 74.834


snapshot



David
+2 Reply
30 AUG 2015 - Chart Update:

Beware, as this pair seems to not comply too well with WW/Geo lines:


snapshot



David
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Maybe it's the lower liquidity that distorts the patterns?
+1 Reply
31 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY breaks conditional floor; Follows higher-prob. forecast pathway:

snapshot


$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen #forex
----------


David Alcindor
+4 Reply
01 SEP 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY hits its 50% #fibonacci target; Mulls 0.618 target and 1- Line:

snapshot


$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen #forex
----------


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
02 SEP 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
----------
$NZDJPY continues to fall as forecast; Geo likely mechanism of last decline:

snapshot


$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #BOJ #kiwi #yen
----------


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
04 SEP 2015 - Twitter/LinkedIn Update:


$NZDJPY chart hit 50.0, then 61.8 #fibonacci target:

snapshot


$NZD $JPY #RBNZ #kiwi #BOJ #yen #forex


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Great stuff David.
+1 Reply
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