NZD/JPY closes below weekly 200-SMA, bias lower, stay short
NZD/JPY rejected at highs at 86.12, slips lower to currently trade at 81.86.
Momentum studies are bearish. RSI has slipped below 50 levels and Stochs are also biased lower.
Bearish divergence observed on RSI and Stochs on daily charts adds scope for further downside.
The pair has closed below weekly 200-SMA at 82.28 on the previous week.
We see scope for test of 50-DMA at 81.38. Violation there could see further downside.
On the flipside, retrace above 20-DMA at 82.57 could see retest of trendline at 83.95.
Focus now on RBNZ this week, analysts foresee a dovish guidance on the cards. RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR at 1.75%.
RBNZ’s survey of inflation expectations showed 2-year inflation expectations decreased to 2.09%. 1-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 1.77% from 1.92%. The median also decreased to 1.80% from 2.00%.
Support levels - 81.67 (July 18 low), 81.37 (50-DMA), 81
Resistance levels - 82.06 (5-DMA), 81.95 (23.6% Fib retrace of 75.626 to 83.910 rally), 82.57 (20-DMA)
Good to go short on rallies around 81.80, SL: 82.60, TP: 81.40/ 81/ 80.75
Momentum studies are bearish. RSI has slipped below 50 levels and Stochs are also biased lower.
Bearish divergence observed on RSI and Stochs on daily charts adds scope for further downside.
The pair has closed below weekly 200-SMA at 82.28 on the previous week.
We see scope for test of 50-DMA at 81.38. Violation there could see further downside.
On the flipside, retrace above 20-DMA at 82.57 could see retest of trendline at 83.95.
Focus now on RBNZ this week, analysts foresee a dovish guidance on the cards. RBNZ is expected to leave the OCR at 1.75%.
RBNZ’s survey of inflation expectations showed 2-year inflation expectations decreased to 2.09%. 1-year-ahead inflation expectations decreased to 1.77% from 1.92%. The median also decreased to 1.80% from 2.00%.
Support levels - 81.67 (July 18 low), 81.37 (50-DMA), 81
Resistance levels - 82.06 (5-DMA), 81.95 (23.6% Fib retrace of 75.626 to 83.910 rally), 82.57 (20-DMA)
Good to go short on rallies around 81.80, SL: 82.60, TP: 81.40/ 81/ 80.75
Comment:
TP1 hit. Bias lower. Stay short.
Comment:
Approaching final targets
