I have a fundamental bias that the kiwi is sensitive to risk sentiment. While long term bearish
JPY I am counter trend JPY until march. We are seeing the bank in no hurry to hike rates and the market tightening too much I believe we have just entered a top at 85.6~ in the short term if there is a pullback to the 85+ level this is wrong and the market is pricing in a rate hike. However, Consensus expects a full 116 bps
of hikes for 2014, so a slower pace of tightening will weigh on NZD. Meanwhile, we expect gradually higher Treasury yields to pressure NZD, given the country’s large net external liability. Finally, given strong relationships to risk, an ongoing tactical correction in risky assets would hit NZD/JPY most in G10.
This is trade 1 in my series "swinging for pips"
Total pips accumulated: 0
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Update: Retesting neckline entered at 85.3 for 80