So, before proceeding further, please refer below link as to understand on how the pattern evidenced their effects recently and rest all is history for now.
We don't think any further justification is needed after referring our previous post.
But for now we think that the pair seems unlikely to sustain previous crucial supports at 80.250 levels.
On , the prices have slipped below 10DMA that signifies us prolong prevailing sentiments after breaking supports at 81.005 levels.
On weekly chart also it is maintaining the attitude well below this with 1 day to go to form a weekly candle way below 81.005 followed by pattern which is a clear confirmation for bears.
The oscillator has begun diverging at around 50 levels to the previous rallies (see circled area on curve) which is one more confirmation of potential swings.
Subsequently, remains in overbought territory despite an attempt of crossover, %D line crossover above 80's, this intensifies bears interests in the market, as a result we've seen today's lows at 81.005 to break the above .
Hence, next strong support is seen only at 79.495 levels, if the pair does not manage to hold onto this level that would certainly expose the levels of 78.330 in short term.
Although the pair experiences some bounces, we could see with dubious eyes on Kiwi fundamentals which are not that conducive, as a result, we maintain long term in our opinion.
Option Strategic Framework: (NZD/JPY Short Put Ladder)
As we continue to maintain stance in long run, while if any abrupt short term upswings could also to be monitored and utilized by below strategy.
Short Put Ladder Spread profits in all 3 directions; When the pair goes upwards (strongly or moderately), remains stagnant or goes downwards strongly. Indeed, the Short Put Ladder Spread has made profitable 4 out of 5 possible outcomes which make its probability of profit extremely high.
With spot FX at 80.500 levels, the strategy takes care of long term basis hedging motives and shorts of 1.5% ITM put option with shorter expiry to tackle any abrupt of upswings in near term
Thus, stay long on 1 lot of 15D ATM -0.50 delta put option and one more long position on 1M (-1.5%) OTM -0.39 delta put option, simultaneously short 1w 1.5% ITM shorts on put option with positive theta.
Maximum returns are limited to the extent of initial credit received if the NZDJPY rallies above the upper breakeven point ( BEP ) but large unlimited profit can be achieved should the underlying exchange rate of NZDJPY makes a vivid downswings below the lower BEP .
For diagrammatic representation of strategy, please refer below link: