kiwiwalnut

NZDUSD - Wait for TL Retest

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
32 1 2
It is due for a retracement to 0.71653 ~ 0.720 levels but waiting for trend line retest and PA to see direction of this pair.
Keeping a close eye on momentum indicators and PA to determine if it will have the strength to break this TL. So if PA is not proportional to momentum and price stalls at support ~ 0.70375 - then we will have the beginning of a retracement. As to the size of the retracement - your call. Not sure we will continue to see an uptrend continuation as the Fed is poised for a rate hike and RBNZ in line to hit inflation targets and reduce their rates.
So with no surprises - risk is to the upside and a breakout of the TL will mark a nice sell - however, RBNZ runs the risk of run away inflation if interest rates are lowered in Nov and global outlook takes a turn for the better. This is more mid to long term view but Wheeler looks hell bent on achieving inflation band target and likely to lower rates as indicated MPT's making a dent in house sales and auctions.

And do not forget the US election either.... So a lot of risk events coming!

Regardless - I will be looking to enter a small long position @ market upon retest of recent support ONLY if downward momentum is exhausted without a break in TL / support around 0.70400 area. Targets will be modest 1st half 1:3 and 2nd half 1:5 RR ( example shown ).

Don;t forget to do your homework first! GL
Trade active: First half of position TP at target 1 - remaining position SL moved to enter = no risk trade. Good luck