DanV
Short

NZDUSD - POTENTIAL SHORT OPPORTUNITY

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
692 10 15
NZDUSD             - Since the low of 2000 Kiwi has been moving in wide up and down swings as it attempts to retrace some of the ground lost in massive decline prior to that, though this chart does not have that data.

The retracement has been in progress and typically it has A, B , C or W, X, Y legs which seems to fit well and it could be seen that we are well advanced in final leg up wave "Y" which it self has been divided in possible minor abc waves. If this interpretation is correct then we appear to be in wave b consolidation and is ready to make last move down for completion if it hasn't started already. Many say that Fundamentals for Kiwi is very positive and has 0.25% increase in its base interest rate. So it should continue higher. Whilst that is likely over longer term as I am suggesting in my chart, but could the price have already moved in anticipation and the big players have already started to lighten their position? I would say yes for the following reasons.

1. We are now at the top of the triangle like consolidation.
2. We have potential peak at news event.
3. Daily candle is displaying clear Topping tail.
4. Last swing up appears to be a rising wedge (clear on daily), which is bearish .
4. Triangle required final leg down to complete that pattern.

In summary could be good short with downside target in the area of 0.80
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I was going to retire this chart pending review. However, I am satisfied that for now it should continue and that the larger time frame trade is still valid even though we have gone little further than originally expected. Here is the update chart.
snapshot
+1 Reply
Yeah It seems that this currencies pair isn't virtual !
snapshot
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Currently I admit I'm still bullish about this market, but your analysis is very long-term, so I have to concede that a correction at this point is quite a logical expectation, sooner or later. :-)
Reply
Nice analysis..
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nmike MOD StockFxMarket
thanks :)
Reply
Thanks Mike, interesting chart with some alternative approach suggesting potential weakness for Kiwi:)
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DanV MOD StockFxMarket
Thanks Mate.
Reply
Agree,negative divergence at resistance on daily
snapshot

Reply
Looks very good..lets see what happen next few days :)
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