Balance of ideas with possibility of one more leg up before the 'big short'.
If PA breaks TL then next targets will be 0.7040 followed by 0.698~. An upward move to 0.74 is possible where next historical structural support / resistance lies but not likely as it will require strong fundamental data from NZ and weakening of US inflationary pressure. Even RBNZ keeping rates on hold at next announcement before macro prudent tools come in effect to control housing price likely to be viewed as dovish. so if upward move does happen - then reversal point likely to be around 0.729 ~ 0.730 area so will be on the look out for entries there
Exited previous linked short and sitting on sidelines ready to enter short again if there is clean break in TL
If PA breaks TL then next targets will be 0.7040 followed by 0.698~. An upward move to 0.74 is possible where next historical structural support / resistance lies but not likely as it will require strong fundamental data from NZ and weakening of US inflationary pressure. Even RBNZ keeping rates on hold at next announcement before macro prudent tools come in effect to control housing price likely to be viewed as dovish. so if upward move does happen - then reversal point likely to be around 0.729 ~ 0.730 area so will be on the look out for entries there
Exited previous linked short and sitting on sidelines ready to enter short again if there is clean break in TL
Comment:
Still waiting for PA - possible bounce @ -0.725~ for a retest of 0.7300~ level. Sentiment on PA seems too heavily bias against Fed not rising rates and RBNZ delaying rate drops on backdrop of high house prices. Not sure how long this will go for as housing still increasing steadily in New Zealand. Might very well see continued bullish bias until next data release.
Comment:
Closed short and waiting for PA - likely to be a triple drive to upper TL before an meaningful downward move - wait and see. Local news in Macro prudent tools like to increase caps for first home buyers so house prices likely to further increase. Which I guess is good of CPI data.....
