Predictive/Forecasting Model indicates a generally outlook, taking aim at its most proximal quantitative target at 0.77934. An interim retracement in the order of 0.382 to 0.618-Fibonacci might occur, but loftier qualitative targets are also lurking and expected to be visited - The targets are defined as follows:
1 - TG-1 = 0.77934 - 22 APR 2015: Quantitative Target = High-Probability hit; Low prob. reversal
2 - TG-Hi = 0.79490 - 22 APR 2015: Qualitative Target = Low-Prob. Hit; High prob. reversal
3 - TG-Hix = 0.80497 - 22 APR 2015; Qualitative Target = Very Low-Prob. Hit; Very High prob. reversal
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First of all, I love the fact that you came up with your own WW/geo. The one you have outlined is internal to the larger one I had defined, and yours fits perfectly well. I agree that all of the rules are met.
The only hesitation is based on the fact that are external to your pattern, as well as mine: Simply put, I have learned to not fight the Predictive/Forecasting Model, and as of this point, it has not yet moved to any of its targets. Now, this is not a mandatory feature of the Model, but the geometry that I share in the chart is simply a secondary or background overlay to give a visual as to why the Predictive/Forecasting Model is probably going to get to the target.
So, let's ignore the Model per se, for now.
Turning purely to the geometries and the pattern (KoD), I would have to say that most of the KoD's have have seen in the past have been associated with retracements, and not reversals ... Here too, this is nothing definitive, and a reversal could very well happen, but the probability measures less against that of a retracement, and to my unfortunate bias (in favor of the Mode, even if I do all my best to ignore it), weighs much lesser in probability against the Model.
Also, in terms of scale, your pattern is internal and opposite in directional intention to the one I posted. Ideally, there would be a larger and smaller pattern, the latter potentiating the former, and thus kicking price ever so briskly off and away.
However, in this case, the internal is aiming south, against the larger pattern. I would have to say that at this point, the larger is likely to command price, although I have seen enough cases where the internal cause a re-drawing of the container. Had Point-5 been defined at an ectopic level, such as Point-5', then a return of price to the level of Point-4 as is nearly the case in your chart would put this dilemma to rest, as we would then expect a departure back to the upside from this current vicinity, not Noooo, you had to bring this delinquent of a geo child into this picture. I would say that a decline to the level of Point-4 remains a possibility, but that the larger geo may hold price up and prevent it from completing your pattern towards its 1-4 Line.
Overall, I have to admit that I am net-bullish, simply because of the Model's targets being unanswered, but that without that bias/expectation, I would have been stomped.
Note how the geo was re-drawn, respective of the EW Rule (i.e.: less probable completion of the geo if using an incomplete development of Elliott Wave impulse. So, in this adjustment, as we continue to follow price. plot by plot, we are seeking the highest probability geometric development, using as strictly as possible, the set of rules defined before.
Not announced in TwitterLinkedIn, here is a potential development for the longer trend ... Needs further quant-data confirmation, but I have erased the more proximal TG-Hi and TG-Hix defiend at a lower timeframe and replaced them with a higher frame data from Predictive/Forecasting Model.
The geometric analog is left in the form of the Geo ... Point-4 remains to be defined/confirmed, but the interim point of reference is offered by the "Geo Anchor" (green asterix).
The overall move down continues to support and complete an Elliott Wave bearish impulse, so a 0.384 rally is a probable event this week.
Again, great find Iefan!
In the case of the Predictive Model, it has been calling for a rallying for quite some time, but as the charts have proven, the 60-minute as well as 4-hour charts have lacked the precision that I would expect, which in the case of the Model's protocol signifies that higher-level players are controlling price.
In this chart, which is nothing too different than what I had posted in recent analysis (I changed the timeframe to clean lines up), the Geo remains the same, and the principle that should impact on price action and target remain unchanged (here, we are dealing again with the Geo's rallying off of its 5-prime ectopia, thus defining price level corresponding to Point-4 as the next highest probable level of attainment).
As this geometry unfolds in the background, the foreground and preponderant measure remains that of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which remains intent on its long-term targets, which have been forecast sometimes ago.