4xForecaster

$NZD vs. $USD Nears Geo's Point-5; Target at 0.77934 #forex

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
Background geometry calls for a Point-5 definition along its 1-3 Line. By definition, this is often associated with a retracement back along the geo's 1-4 Line.


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Predictive/Forecasting Model indicates a generally BULLISH outlook, taking aim at its most proximal quantitative target at 0.77934. An interim retracement in the order of 0.382 to 0.618-Fibonacci might occur, but loftier qualitative targets are also lurking and expected to be visited - The targets are defined as follows:

1 - TG-1 = 0.77934 - 22 APR 2015: Quantitative Target = High-Probability hit; Low prob. reversal

2 - TG-Hi = 0.79490 - 22 APR 2015: Qualitative Target = Low-Prob. Hit; High prob. reversal

and

3 - TG-Hix = 0.80497 - 22 APR 2015; Qualitative Target = Very Low-Prob. Hit; Very High prob. reversal
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate #227974
Alias: 4xForecaster (Twitter, LinkedIn, StockTwits)

Signal Service or Private Course - Contact: admin@KADAInstitute.com
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cyanfrog
2 years ago
Price would need a lot of momentum to get through consolidation area from october-january.
Reply
28 APR 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD: As larger geo unfolds, Kiss f Death ("KoD") could delay first target attainment; Bullish:

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$NZD $USD #RBNZ
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
30 APR 2015 - Update:

Looks like the KoD worked out pretty well:


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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
Pip_Alchemist 4xForecaster
2 years ago
UPDATE: 30 APR
Dear David
I believe this WW follows all the rules and explains the KOD. What do think?
And in regards to an entry this far into the geo, is there any prospect for a entry with good risk reward from this point? maybe a test of geo structure?

Many thanks

R
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+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO Pip_Alchemist
2 years ago
Hello @Pip_Alchemist,

First of all, I love the fact that you came up with your own WW/geo. The one you have outlined is internal to the larger one I had defined, and yours fits perfectly well. I agree that all of the rules are met.

The only hesitation is based on the fact that are external to your pattern, as well as mine: Simply put, I have learned to not fight the Predictive/Forecasting Model, and as of this point, it has not yet moved to any of its targets. Now, this is not a mandatory feature of the Model, but the geometry that I share in the chart is simply a secondary or background overlay to give a visual as to why the Predictive/Forecasting Model is probably going to get to the target.

So, let's ignore the Model per se, for now.

Turning purely to the geometries and the pattern (KoD), I would have to say that most of the KoD's have have seen in the past have been associated with retracements, and not reversals ... Here too, this is nothing definitive, and a reversal could very well happen, but the probability measures less against that of a retracement, and to my unfortunate bias (in favor of the Mode, even if I do all my best to ignore it), weighs much lesser in probability against the Model.

Also, in terms of scale, your pattern is internal and opposite in directional intention to the one I posted. Ideally, there would be a larger and smaller pattern, the latter potentiating the former, and thus kicking price ever so briskly off and away.

However, in this case, the internal is aiming south, against the larger pattern. I would have to say that at this point, the larger is likely to command price, although I have seen enough cases where the internal cause a re-drawing of the container. Had Point-5 been defined at an ectopic level, such as Point-5', then a return of price to the level of Point-4 as is nearly the case in your chart would put this dilemma to rest, as we would then expect a departure back to the upside from this current vicinity, not Noooo, you had to bring this delinquent of a geo child into this picture. I would say that a decline to the level of Point-4 remains a possibility, but that the larger geo may hold price up and prevent it from completing your pattern towards its 1-4 Line.

Overall, I have to admit that I am net-bullish, simply because of the Model's targets being unanswered, but that without that bias/expectation, I would have been stomped.


David


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+2 Reply
04 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD remains open to bullish targets as defined; Nascent geo may justify target validation:

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$NZD $USD #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
4xForecaster PRO 4xForecaster
2 years ago
04 MAY 2015 - TECH-NOTE:

Note how the geo was re-drawn, respective of the EW Rule (i.e.: less probable completion of the geo if using an incomplete development of Elliott Wave impulse. So, in this adjustment, as we continue to follow price. plot by plot, we are seeking the highest probability geometric development, using as strictly as possible, the set of rules defined before.

David
+4 Reply
12 MAY 2015 - Update:

Not announced in TwitterLinkedIn, here is a potential development for the longer trend ... Needs further quant-data confirmation, but I have erased the more proximal TG-Hi and TG-Hix defiend at a lower timeframe and replaced them with a higher frame data from Predictive/Forecasting Model.


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The geometric analog is left in the form of the Geo ... Point-4 remains to be defined/confirmed, but the interim point of reference is offered by the "Geo Anchor" (green asterix).

Stay tuned,


David Alcindor
+3 Reply
19 MAY 2015 - Update:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD hit Geo target as forecast; Now, carves out a departure point for bullish targets:

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$NZD $USD #RBNZ #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
shenkw85 4xForecaster
2 years ago
Hi David

Can you explain the behaviour in NZDUSD? Appreciated

Thanks

+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO shenkw85
2 years ago
Hello @shenkw85 - Price completed its full Geo cycle. However, the recent structural low (a new lower-low) negate any bullish forecast at this point.

The overall move down continues to support and complete an Elliott Wave bearish impulse, so a 0.384 rally is a probable event this week.


David Alcindor
+2 Reply
birolguner 4xForecaster
a year ago
hi david

the decline will continue? thank you ...
Reply
15 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD dwells at 0.69695, corresponding to a significant #fibonacci 1.618 extension:

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$NZD $USD #RBNZ #forex
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David Alcindor
+5 Reply
birolguner 4xForecaster
a year ago
thank you..
Reply
26 JUN 2015 - UPDAT:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD nearing significant level @ 0.67888 per Predictive/Forecasting Model:

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$USD $NZD #RBNZ #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
28 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD hit target on watch at 0.67888; Signals a high-probability reversal; Bullish targets intact:

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$USD $NZD
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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
30 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

Tech-Note: $NZDUSD is falling slightly lower, validating the 5-prime defining line. A rallying from this level would probably be limited to the price level corresponding to Point-4 per Off-Set Rule:


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David Alcindor
+3 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
30 June 2015

$NZDUSD

Hi David,

On a lower TF this Geo may indicate the start of the reversal?
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+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hello @iefan - I have not looked at it at this level, but it does look promising - However, taking a second look at it, there is a small refinement that could go into this geometry ... See update on this chart I am posting in a few seconds, using your timeframe ... Coming up next.

Again, great find Iefan!

David
+2 Reply
30 JUN 2015 - UPDATE:

From twitter/LinkedIn:
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$NZDUSD - Watch for nascent Geo's OffSet Rule to stomp rally at level of Point-4 = 0.68763:

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$NZD $USD #RBNZ #forex
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David Alcindor
+2 Reply
iefan PRO 4xForecaster
a year ago
Thank you David, ah yes the ab-cd.....I must remember to look for that. A quick question. Is the NZD expected to rise because it is strengthening or is its rise because of weakness in the USD? I'm just trying to determine if one can use that kind of information to also expect a rally from the GBPUSD pair back into resistance, or is it expected that weakness in the GBP will see that pair continue to decline? I'm not sure if I'm clear enough with my question....do you get what I'm asking?

Kind regards


Iefan
+1 Reply
4xForecaster PRO iefan
a year ago
Hello @iefan, sorry I missed your question (wow, 22 days ago!). The answer to your question tends to reveal itself in the fundamentals AFTER the fact, while the fact remains the chart. In other words, in my perspective, it rose simply because my model is calling for a rise, and the geometry is calling for a rally, and these are what has been expected way before any fundamental release, whether one believes that technical analysis discounts the fundamentals or not.

In the case of the Predictive Model, it has been calling for a rallying for quite some time, but as the charts have proven, the 60-minute as well as 4-hour charts have lacked the precision that I would expect, which in the case of the Model's protocol signifies that higher-level players are controlling price.


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In this chart, which is nothing too different than what I had posted in recent analysis (I changed the timeframe to clean lines up), the Geo remains the same, and the principle that should impact on price action and target remain unchanged (here, we are dealing again with the Geo's rallying off of its 5-prime ectopia, thus defining price level corresponding to Point-4 as the next highest probable level of attainment).

As this geometry unfolds in the background, the foreground and preponderant measure remains that of the Predictive/Forecasting Model, which remains intent on its long-term targets, which have been forecast sometimes ago.


David
+2 Reply
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