Csys
Long

Kiwi range breakout

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
28 0 2
9 months ago
Everyone is aware of the relationship between Aussie-Kiwi and the precious metals. Australia is one of the largest gold             producers in the world, on which New Zealand's economy is heavily depended. Thus, it is of no surprise that the bullish outlook in the precious metals (see the linked ideas) is correlated with NZD. I am already on the long side of the precious metal train, and it seems we have a similar picture here.

There has been a pretty strong downtrend in Kiwi since July 2014, and this downtrend is now ready to give its place to a long-lasting uptrend. Here is the final sketch:

The Gartley 222 phase: The Gartley pattern which is popularly traded in today's industry has somewhat different implications than the original Gartley 222 does. Mr. Gartley found that, without the Fib ratios and such, there is a tendency that strong downtrends end with a pattern he explains in the 222nd page of his book Profits in the Stock Market . So the pattern played a confirming role, contrary to the signaling role of the Gartley pattern in the modern day trader's toolkit. Here, too, after the 2016 Q4 bottom, the Gartley 222 phase started, and this, along with many things, is confirming that the downtrend is over. This phase lasted until January 2016.

The inverted horn phase: Upon the completion of the Gartley pattern , the modern day trader would expect a .382 or .618 retracement. That actually happened, and the price action took the form of the inverted horn. This rare formation also occurred in the precious metals throughout January 2016, carrying the market into the level of the weekly resistance. Here the weekly resistance is the red dashed line.

The rectangular congestion phase: The accelerating nature of the inverted horn requires a breathtaking point, which took the form of a rectangle in this pair, and which had another forms in the precious metals.

Today: Today is the day on which the market has finally broken the congestion area. For this pair, the breakout was coincided with the breaking away of the weekly bearish TL. That happened with strength, and it seems much more buying is due. I always try to be on the conservative side of forecasts, so for now, let me be contented to expect a bullish week ahead of us, which I believe will be enough for practical purposes.
9 months ago
Comment: Correction: That is the regular horn formation, not the inverted horn. My hastiness in writing.
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