The way I'm seeing it is that the recent moves up was a wave (1) of a much bigger corrective wave (A) up. If it is, then what we should be seeing now and to come is a wave (2) down retracing that wave (1). Most likely down into the G-Zone retracement area at the minimum the .618 retrace. Right now, we are seeing the setup for that move down.
This pair has been a pattern party lately! The COMPLETED worked to perfection and yielded +360 pips on the wave (1) move up if you had taken it! And did that with little pain on the drawdown. Now, we got a COMPLETED Bat that just recently filled and has already started to fall from it. There is also a pattern that is developing as of this post.
What I am also anticipating could happen is that prices will now consolidate sideways here and form the right shoulder of the pattern while waiting for the FOMC. So what I am saying that the chart is telling me is that for this pair, the FOMC will bring a drop. Up to you whether you will believe that or not but it is what the chart is telling me.
MY TRADE PLAN
I am waiting for prices to retest that Major SR Structure overhead that was broken to the upside earlier today in what is now known to be a false break. When prices get near to retesting that structure, I will be a SELLER and will hold it through the FOMC. As for a stop, because it is to be somewhat of a BIG news announcement, there may be some whipsawing and stop hunting going on. So before the FOMC, I will be widening my stops to accommodate the swinging. But for now, when I get in a SHORT, I'll place my stops above the end of wave (1) on the chart.
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