The USA is rapidly printing money as Trump is in denial about the pandemic. It is well known that Trump refuses to even wear a mask.
New Zealand is the opposite: their strict and rapid intervention has squashed the spread of Covid. Incredible work, hats off to Jacinda Ardern. Bravo!
There are three paths to end the pandemic: 1. Water-tight temporary lock downs (See New Zealand), 2. Herd immunity, 3. A vaccine.
Trump is pushing the USA down the road to Option 2 -- Likely the most expensive in every respect.
The USA will water down the dollar through the summer and loads more as the economy collapses this fall. This is inevitable following option 2.
I believe we can view New York's 30% move to immunity in line with in the major stock indices in the United States. Given we're only 1/3 the way to the end, it is evident we have 1 and 2 on the charts. Wave three is usually the strongest-- that hasn't happened yet. When it does occur, the demand for a safe haven will spike, NZD is the obvious choice. I believe bleak economic results this summer will be the catalyst to get a selloff started, followed by rapid Covid spread once fall sets in.
All the while New Zealand will be open and operating, printing far few dollars as compared to the USA. This simple fact will make the Kiwi a safe-haven currency for the next 10-12 months. I predict we'll see parity in NZDUSD by December 2020.
Ironically, the US will be forced to do its own New Zealand style lock down this fall and winter, after which we'll see the beginning of an actual recovery.