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KIWI NEXT WEEK : GUERILLA TACTIC

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar/U.S. Dollar
198 0 1
- Fundamental Analysis
What did we know about Kiwi last week ?. One more rate hike. The rate hike widely expected from economists and forecasters. There were some points I want to recap:
- The rate hike seems didn’t provide any support for Kiwi, after tested 0.8630 level, Kiwi immediately reverses the trend , down to 0.8550
- RBNZ was more hawkish than normal.
- RBNZ will assess the high currency affects on inflation.
- Likely more rate hike in the upcoming Meetings.
How to anticipate the trend of Kiwi now indeed is very difficult. The current level of Kiwi is too high, it needs a correction, but the correction should be limited above 0.84 because of upcoming rate hikes.
Next week, like I said, US economic data dominates FX market. There is one piece of NZ             data is released:
- Trade Balance.
But I think this data might show no impact on Kiwi, NZDUSD             will wait for US data.
In my opinion, I will use the guerrilla tactic. I just attack Kiwi in days releasing important data.I will SHORT NZDUSD             from Wednesday to Friday.
FED taper decision + ISM Manufacturing PMI + NFP Report would have a significant impact on Kiwi.
- Technical Analysis
I see a triangle pattern. If price breaks above or below this pattern, the pattern would provide resistance and support.
SMA50 + EMA50 coincide with Ichimoku cloud at 0.8520
38.2% Fib retracement at 0.8480
Kumo cloud is very thick, it’s very difficult for Kiwi to escape the Kumo cloud, so the long term trend is still uptrend. I recommend LONG NZDUSD             if price test 0.84 level.
I will assess all market condition, market sentiment before Wednesday, and then open a position before FED Interest rate decision, but most likely I will not risk SHORT Kiwi to 0.8480, It’s too dangerous.
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