NZDUSD: WAITING RBNZ

Today, the highlight of the day will be the RBNZ monetary policy meeting. The Bank is forecast to remain on hold at this meeting and may reiterate a strong easing bias in the meeting statement. Even though we believe that low inflation expectations are probably the Bank’s biggest concern, and thus provide scope for near-term rate cuts, we agree that the officials are likely to hold their fire at this gathering. Since April’s meeting, not much has changed in the outlook to justify an immediate cut. More importantly, we believe that the RBNZ may want to have a look at the Q1 CPI print, due to be released in July, before taking further action.


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