It just the beginning of this rally.
Look at on the chart :
NZDUSD has just retraced to 23.6% Fib retracement from 0.8800 to 0.6235
If N/U bounces from this level, a strong falling is a understandable thing.
but I don't expect this happens.
I think a BREAK.
NZUDUSD cut SMA200 in August 2014 and hold below it until the present.
Obviously, N/U cut SMA200 for the first time since Aug 2014.
I think this is a real BREAK which triggers a big move of NZDUSD to higher level.
In short, I have two breaks:
- Break 23.6% Fib Retracement
- Break SMA200
I think market should open more room for NZDUSD resilience.
38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7225 is the level I choose: that is also a strong resistance.
Moreover, if we look a bigger picture, we will see a inverse Head and Shoulder pattern.
I think N/U should test the neckline of Inverse H & S pattern.
commodity recovers should support Kiwi.