Sforex
Long

Kiwi: N/U should complete inverse H &S pattern.

FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
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I am not surprised the rally of NZDUSD             recent months.

It just the beginning of this rally.

Look at on the chart :

NZDUSD             has just retraced to 23.6% Fib retracement from 0.8800 to 0.6235

If N/U bounces from this level, a strong falling is a understandable thing.

but I don't expect this happens.

I think a BREAK.

NZUDUSD cut SMA200 in August 2014 and hold below it until the present.

Obviously, N/U cut SMA200 for the first time since Aug 2014.

I think this is a real BREAK which triggers a big move of NZDUSD             to higher level.

In short, I have two breaks:

- Break 23.6% Fib Retracement
- Break SMA200

I think market should open more room for NZDUSD             resilience.

38.2% Fib retracement at 0.7225 is the level I choose: that is also a strong resistance.

Moreover, if we look a bigger picture, we will see a inverse Head and Shoulder pattern.

I think N/U should test the neckline of Inverse H & S pattern.

commodity recovers should support Kiwi.
imo from a technical point of view it make sens from a fundamental point of view not so much imo the real test will be next week with regular volume coming back into the market ? but when I see saudi arabia planning it's forcast state budget with a barrel of crude at 28 dollar it's does not give much credit to the nzd going much higher !
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hmm, what about that resitance from September?
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