LewisGlasgow

NZD/USD - Three Drives (Confluence)

Short
FX:NZDUSD   New Zealand Dollar / U.S. Dollar
Hello traders, following up from my previous post on NZD/USD with a bearish cypher pattern (shown below). I have now spotted a bullish three drives pattern that aligns with the D point of the cypher and it looks insane!


This has opened up an opportunity to trade with over 1:4 risk to reward, I'll be selling upon the breakout of the trendline.

Do not forget we have the FOMC rate statement on the 1st of February and NFP on the 3rd of February, this provides additional reasoning for a 600 pip move.

As always, trade safe everyone!
Trade active
Comment: Clear break of the trendline, I'm currently running in 30 pips profit.

Don't forget we have the FOMC rate statement at 7:00PM (GMT).
Comment: Price is now retesting the trendline at 0.73100 and has formed a valid head and shoulders pattern on the 1h chart.


Depending on whether we see a bounce or break this could be an excellent entry point for those of you still on the sideline.
Comment: If you missed the initial drop wait for a retracement before entering.

Price is currently sitting on the 0.382 retracement which is a crucial daily support level, if we see a clean break it will drop to the minor support level at the 0.618 retracement.

Comment: Keep an eye on this price structure if you're looking to get in on this trade!

Comment: Move your stop loss into profit.
Comment: 1st take profit target reached, you can continue holding or close and re-enter with a smaller position size to secure profits.
Comment: Here we have a reciprocal AB=CD.


Price could potentially pullback to the 0.382 retracement level before continuing the move, this would be an excellent area short.
Comment: Just an update on this move for everyone who's looking to get back in! As you can see from the chart shown below after price dropped it came back into the 0.382 retracement level before continuing the move... Indicating a strong trend.


The exact same is happening around 0.70400, price has hit the 0.382 retracement level and we're starting to see signs of indecision.

I'm expecting to short from this level all the way down to support at 0.68900, if the drop occurs I'll be sure to update you all in the near future with my next move.
Comment: Here is your entry point to get back into this move! Price has now reached the 0.382 retracement of the full price swing and is showing signs of indecision which indicates a strong trend.


As shown on the chart the 200 EMA crosses over the 0.382 retracement level and price closed below.

I'll see you all at the bottom :)
Comment: The 0.382 retracement level held extremely well, I'm currently 50+ pips in profit from the initial drop.


I'll be holding my position down to the support level before analysing this pair futher.

I hope you all have a great weekend!
Comment: Just another update for everyone, I'm still short from the 0.382 retracement level of the entire price swing (or 50% retracement level of the previous high to low).

Price is now trading within a descending channel on the 30m chart as shown below.


I'll be expecting price to continue down to 0.69100 to complete a bullish bat pattern, at this area we may see a temporary reversal before continuing the bigger picture.

Comment: Price is now 30 pips off the D point to complete the bullish bat pattern, upon reaching this level I will analyse the reversal further.
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Comments

a long trade ,

using ichi i am bearish also . for me i missed tp and seems my trailing sl is going to hit on the 1st position, 2nd i will leave it at be

+1 Reply
@TAJIR_B, it is indeed, we've been scaling in and out over the past month.

That's looking good :) it should be a good trade!
+1 Reply
Kudos
+1 Reply
LewisGlasgow trajkovic
@trajkovic, thanks again ;)
Reply
Very Good, Kudos.
Very good analysis and commentary. Thank you for sharing.
+1 Reply
LewisGlasgow trajkovic
@trajkovic, thank you very much indeed. I hope you have a great weekend!
Reply
hi
Do you think continues down??
thanks
+1 Reply
LewisGlasgow hicranhalil
@hicranhalil, yes but now is not a good time to enter. I would wait for a pullback before getting in :)
Reply
hicranhalil LewisGlasgow
@lewglasgow, I'm taking the sale of-- 0.71059 --
Reply
LewisGlasgow hicranhalil
@hicranhalil, that's a good level to go by, but it depends how deep the retracement is.
Reply
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