PROs:
Seasonally a good month for OJ
Broke through critical resistance at 122.05
Smart money hedgers are net long
Making higher lows on the weekly time frame, from the 6th March
Bearish sentiment amongst small speculators
OJ is in high demand due to COVID
Risk outlook is considered medium at this stage
CONs:
Demand is in a long term decline
Global oversupply of OJ
Negative divergence in play (2)
Highly volatile over the past 3 months (and in general)
Trading below strong overhead supply
Report:
The strong breakout above trendline resistance on the 20th of March 2020 at (1) was your first clue prices would probably head higher after ranging over the past 13 months. However, within a week OJ fell back to retest what is now dual support at (1), which was respected and has since bounced hard creating higher lows on the weekly time frame. The overall strength of this market is questionable as illustrated at (2).
Bottomcatcher’s Opinion: For short term traders a long position could be taken at the 124.00 handle with a stop loss in place at 121.35, and a target set at the 130.00 handle just below strong resistance at (3) and 50% fib level (taken from the highs of July 2018 and the lows of May 2019). For those in it for the long haul, a convincing break above resistance at (3) would be their buy signal with 145s as a first target, and 152s in extension as a second target to watch out for.