5/13/24 - $onon - found a potential swing long (finally), small
5/13/24 - vrockstar -
ONON
has always been a pretty expensive stock that i've watched but not owned (have only owned
CROX
but also no longer any footwear). that being said, the setup in the quarter does look like a low bar. a. google trends impressive b. seasonal trends c. QoQ and d. stock back to where it "missed" last q. objectively there's no getting around 75c of EPS on cons. costing $30 bucks today - that's expensive. however, a beat on EPS and 2H > 1H revisions could objectively take this full year # to $1 and then you're looking at $1.5 next year (that's how the market would probably trade it), and then paying 30x on 1.5$ and discounted by 20% (to be conservative b/c the 1.5$ is probably not conservative per se) gives you a stock in the mid to high $30s. it's reasonably shorted too (7 days to cover from what i can sense - i used to be one of these shorts after IPO - but it was a tough swim and just got off that boat after they kept delivering). all else equal, i'm struggling to find potential long pops on EPS in this tape and i promise i'm NOT a bear (who can be with brrr forever), but this might be one to take a look at on the long side.
ONON
has always been a pretty expensive stock that i've watched but not owned (have only owned
CROX
but also no longer any footwear). that being said, the setup in the quarter does look like a low bar. a. google trends impressive b. seasonal trends c. QoQ and d. stock back to where it "missed" last q. objectively there's no getting around 75c of EPS on cons. costing $30 bucks today - that's expensive. however, a beat on EPS and 2H > 1H revisions could objectively take this full year # to $1 and then you're looking at $1.5 next year (that's how the market would probably trade it), and then paying 30x on 1.5$ and discounted by 20% (to be conservative b/c the 1.5$ is probably not conservative per se) gives you a stock in the mid to high $30s. it's reasonably shorted too (7 days to cover from what i can sense - i used to be one of these shorts after IPO - but it was a tough swim and just got off that boat after they kept delivering). all else equal, i'm struggling to find potential long pops on EPS in this tape and i promise i'm NOT a bear (who can be with brrr forever), but this might be one to take a look at on the long side.