Palladium Long set up with nice nearby invalidation to flip bias

Palladium seems to have made a nice ascending channel with a few bounces from both sides of the lines. My preferred set up is that support holds (as expected) and makes a move to the upside, with a little bit of choppiness in the mid point which would probably act as a TP signal if it gets too rough. That set up is roughly marked by the blue arrow. Invalidation is a break of the lower trendline which sets us up with a pretty nice risk to reward ratio.

I think an alternative scenario could manifest itself which is a breakdown of the lower trendline. In that circumstance the long would be invalidated and I think there is an entry signal to go short if there is a failed retest from the underside of the lower trendline. Showcased terribly by my drawing skills in orange.

Horizontal Support/Resistances marked by Green/Orange dashed lines respectively. Interested to hear anyone elses thoughts!

Comment:

Looks like scenario 2 is playing out. Bias flipped for now