This looks like a sure bet to me (and it's a good hedge against the SM Energy CALL SPREAD).
'16 $22.50 PUT
'16 $20.00 PUT
- Initial outlay: $120 (net debit)
- Maximum risk: $120 at a price of $22.50 at expiry
- Maximum return: $130 at a price of $20 at expiry
- BE at expiry: $21.30