Pendle and the missing Fib - potential for a 30% correction

I like Fibs. Especially in crypto. Wherever I see a well-defined and significant run up or run down in the historic price action I draw some basic extension Fibs (yes, sometimes upside down as well - I don't care...). Then I check whether these Fibs have historically been, and are being, acknowledged. If so, then that set of Fibs is what I use for trading.

As I need some historic price action to feel comfortable, I'm not particularly interested in new crypto's and, as usual, I made it to Pendle well and truly late for the party (little green arrow shows where I finally got in). But what saw I liked. Pendle responds really well to one particular set of Fibs that are the upside down extension Fibs of the original run down from late-2021 to mid-2022 (see weekly linked chart of Pendle's full price history below).

All the Fibs from this set that the price action has encountered during its meteoric rise have been properly acknowledged - except for one... After duly acknowledging the 1, the 1.618, and the 2.618 fibs (white circles), the Pendle price action completely ignored the 4.236 fib in late March (orange circle)! This took me by surprise as I clocked out and cashed in my chips at that level (red arrows). Damn!

Needless to say, the next fib on the list, i.e. the 6.857 fib, is where the price stopped. Now, you can call me superstitious, but I believe that there's NO WAY that Pendle can keep going up without first coming down. :)

Bitcoin is still on a sideways wobble and I'm expecting it to correct just that little bit more before the deck is cleared for a further run up. If so, then I expect this to be the perfect opportunity for Pendle to do what it is supposed to do and come down to recognise the 4.236 fib in this set! A proper acknowledgement would be a spike down and a weekly (or at least a clear daily) close on or near this fib level.


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