QQQ rallied back at the end of the day to show support for a four year trend line. Yes, I do think this trend will break, but the market is a bit over extended given the current expectations around rates / the fed, a recession, and other macros. More new information is needed to drive prices to a sustained-lower level. Examples of what new information may look like.
The market had already priced in a lot of bad expectations even before today. More bad news will come, it's only a matter of time, but I think there is also an argument that the current market price has shifted from "priced in" more negative news to "betting on" more negative news.
- Continued worse-than-expected inflation news
- Earnings contractions (we're still seeing positive earnings growth!)
- Decreases in consumer / GDP growth
- Another hedge fund unwinds positions and closes shop (see Melvin), sparking very significant fear
The market had already priced in a lot of bad expectations even before today. More bad news will come, it's only a matter of time, but I think there is also an argument that the current market price has shifted from "priced in" more negative news to "betting on" more negative news.