calmthewaves commented that he saw the Q's in a falling broadening pattern and when I looked I saw it too but I still thought the Q's would break out. They didn't and there is something wrong.
Basil Chapman, one of the best technicians out there, calls this pattern a falling axe pattern and it is not . Because the Q's have tagged that bottom line four times over the past few weeks, I am now thinking that the Q's may be on their way to that lower line again, and that's not good. However, if the Q's find support above 85.11 then I'll still hold that the Q's will break up and out of this pattern and then we're off to the races. So 85.11 is key. We drop below 85.11 and then I would expect the lower support levels of 83.74 and 83.28 to be on the agenda.
I am long TQQQ but haven't added my last 1/3rd position and, most important, I have my stop in place.
My gut tells me we are tells me we are headed down but the charts of $SPX are not confirming and I have to go with the charts. What will finally convince me that we are truly headed deep south will be a sell signal in the weekly charts. That might happen on IWM this week but then there's all this hype over alibaba that might save the markets. Key today will be whether or not indexes can hang on to and then build on the green in the futures right now at 8:30am. If they can then I wouldn't be surprised to see a test of the highs in a few days. If they can't and end red, then downside argument gets stronger, IMHO
In the near term, I think it's absolutely imperative for the Q's to stay away from 85.11 as a close below that level, especially with volume, probably means Q's drop into the 83's and perhaps lower so, for me at least, QQQ 85.11 is key.
Thanks for bringing this to my attention..this and the $SPX + $DJIA performance after hitting that high in the first week of April has me trimming most of my equity positions for the next few weeks at least. If we start rip-roaring again I'll take another taste but idk if I share your optimism of QQQ bouncing off that lower line. Nice analysis :-)
Thanks for your comment and GL