CurtisM

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Markets Allocation
55 % indices 43 % stocks 2 % commodities
Top Mentioned Symbols
SPX 47% | 46 SPY 16% | 16 QQQ 12% | 12 NUGT 8% | 8
CurtisM CurtisM VIX, D,
VIX: $VIX 5EMA with $SPX
298 3 9
VIX, D
$VIX 5EMA with $SPX

The idea of this chart is that when the $VIX 5EMA gets down into the lower two horizontal yellow lines, it's time to get ready for some kind of market reversal. This chart has worked well for quite a long period of time in indicating when the markets were getting a little too overheated and were prime for a pullback of one degree or another. However, it should be ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, D,
SPX: $SPX with PPO
338 6 4
SPX, D
$SPX with PPO

Here is an updated chart of $SPX with PPO set to mimic the 250EMA. As always with this chart, I am looking for signs of negative divergence between price and $SPX's 250EMA. At the moment we do have slight or local negative divergence between price and the 250EMA and while this is the way declines usually begin I'm not so sure we're getting ready for a decline at ...

CurtisM CurtisM NUGT, D, Long ,
NUGT: NUGT: Trade Idea.
482 2 6
NUGT, D Long
NUGT: Trade Idea.

I went long NUGT this past Monday, 11-10-2014, because on Friday, November 7th, the CCI rose above -100.Because I consider this to be a high risk trade, I bought only 50 shares. The idea is that if it does work out I will add an additional 50 shares and then let the position ride. I am hoping that this will turn out to be a mid to long term trade lasting from a ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, D, Long ,
SPX: $SPX with PPO set to mimic 250EMA
722 5 6
SPX, D Long
$SPX with PPO set to mimic 250EMA

Over the last several months, I have followed two charts that give an indication of a slowdown in participation as those slowdowns are usually followed by a give back of one degree or another. I have used a chart that employs PVT (Price Volume Trend) and this chart which shows the percentage difference between $SPX and its 250EMA. I've watched both of these ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, W,
SPX: $SPX Weekly, 05/16/2014: Two consecutive indecision dojis
380 12 11
SPX, W
$SPX Weekly, 05/16/2014: Two consecutive indecision dojis

The weekly chart of $SPX looks fine. It's moving above a rising trend line and above the MA's that I use in the weekly time frame. But we have two indecision doji's on the chart and they mean exactly that: indecision. $SPX is stuck between a high of 1902 and a low of 1862 and depending on how we close out the coming week then that is likely the way we're going in ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, D,
SPX: $SPX Daily, 05/13/2014: Keltner Squeeze
361 8 6
SPX, D
$SPX Daily, 05/13/2014: Keltner Squeeze

A Keltner Squeeze occurs when the Bollinger Bands, the red bands on the chart, move inside the Keltner Channel, the blue bands on the chart. This happened over the past two sessions. The best signal comes when the $SPX tags the upper Bollinger Band while inside the Keltners. This is what happened on Tuesday, May 13th. I have marked with a yellow arrow the other ...

CurtisM CurtisM VIX, D,
VIX: $VIX 5EMA, 05/13/2014: Deep in the froth zone
222 0 8
VIX, D
$VIX 5EMA, 05/13/2014: Deep in the froth zone

So now what? 5EMA on the $VIX now at 12.65, a level that in the past has indicated a market that has become too bullish for its own good. Will this chart work its predictive magic as it has since the beginning of 2013? I don't know but I'd be cautious here and give things a couple of day's to sort themselves out, IMHO. GL

CurtisM CurtisM VIX, D,
VIX: $VIX 5EMA, 05/12/2014: 5EMA enters froth zone
241 9 5
VIX, D
$VIX 5EMA, 05/12/2014: 5EMA enters froth zone

It's been almost 4 months since the last time the $VIX 5EMA entered the froth zone between 13 & 12.5. Today the 5EMA dropped from Friday's reading of 13.27 to 12.92. While past performance is no guarantee of future performance, each time in the last 17 months when the 5EMA has dropped down near 12.5, the market has put in a short term top of one degree or the ...

CurtisM CurtisM QQQ, D, Long ,
QQQ: QQQ Daily, 05/09/2014: Weakness confirmed by falling MA's
189 3 3
QQQ, D Long
QQQ Daily, 05/09/2014: Weakness confirmed by falling MA's

Q's continue to find sellers at the upper falling trend line. While the 9EMA is above the 20MA, which is bullish, all of the shorter term MA's, including the 9EMA, are pointing down, which is bearish. At $86.80, the Q's remain stuck between the recent high of $88.21 and the recent low of $85.11. What's bothersome here is that the ADX line is moving up and this ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, D,
SPX: $SPX Daily, 05/09/2014: More evidence of momo loss.
254 3 6
SPX, D
$SPX Daily, 05/09/2014: More evidence of momo loss.

+40pts & 1.6% on the year. -5.57pts & 0.29% on the month. -2.66pts & 0.14% on the week. We have been moving back and forth between the lower and upper consolidation zones since mid-December, 2013. The percentage difference between $SPX & its 250EMA continues to shrink as momentum continues to slow. But key is that while $SPX appears to be running out of momentum, ...

CurtisM CurtisM QQQ, D, Long ,
QQQ: QQQ Daily, 05/06/2014: Chapman falling axe pattern
259 8 3
QQQ, D Long
QQQ Daily, 05/06/2014: Chapman falling axe pattern

I said yesterday that if the Q's couldn't push above the upper resistance line then there is something very wrong. I was 100% certain that the Q's would push up and out of the channel and maybe even rise above the important swing high at $88.21. Hey, not so fast. calmthewaves commented that he saw the Q's in a falling broadening pattern and when I looked I saw ...

CurtisM CurtisM QQQ, D, Long ,
QQQ: QQQ Daily, 05/05/2014: Time to leave price channel behind?
231 8 2
QQQ, D Long
QQQ Daily, 05/05/2014: Time to leave price channel behind?

Normally when you see a big reversal day like today, you have huge volume, but not today as Q's only traded 27 million shares. Still, price is the only thing that pays. Now, after being contained within this falling price channel for nearly two months it does appear that the Q's will break out of it tomorrow. Depending on how your upper resistance line is placed, ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, M,
SPX: $SPX Monthly, 4/30/2014: Negative divergence's& Momentum loss
270 1 7
SPX, M
$SPX Monthly, 4/30/2014: Negative divergence's& Momentum loss

$SPX prints a green candle for the month of April as it rises 11.61pts & 0.62%. That's all well and good, but we are still in a state of negative divergence between the new high and the RSI & CCI. As I have said in the past when posting about the monthly chart, the problem with the current market situation is that it is a mirror image of the 2000 & 2007 tops. ...

CurtisM CurtisM QQQ, D, Long ,
QQQ: QQQ Daily, 04/30/2014: Q's close to breaking price channel
140 2 2
QQQ, D Long
QQQ Daily, 04/30/2014: Q's close to breaking price channel

The Q's are now about 40 cents away from breaking out of the price channel. Even if this should happen on Thursday, Q's would need another day above the price channel to confirm the break out and if they're able to do that then the price channel becomes a large bull flag and bull flags historically offer some good buying opportunities, IMHO. But it's important to ...

CurtisM CurtisM QQQ, D,
QQQ: QQQ Daily, 04/28/2014: Monday's Bottoming Tail.
172 4 2
QQQ, D
QQQ Daily, 04/28/2014: Monday's Bottoming Tail.

Monday's big reversal gave us bottoming tails all over the place, including the Q's. This gives the Q's another chance to break out of the price channels it's been in since early March. The Q's have banged into that upper channel line several times and failed, however, this time could be different. We put in a swing low on the 15th of 83.28 and then a swing high ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, D,
SPX: $SPX Daily, 04/25/2014: No trend, no entry.
373 14 4
SPX, D
$SPX Daily, 04/25/2014: No trend, no entry.

This just isn't looking good. We have no trend and remain stuck in a 4-months long consolidation. Except for a small position I took in TQQQ the other day, I am mostly in cash. What do I do? Go long. Why? Go short. Why? I don't see an edge for either case. Every time it looks like we're going higher, we fail, and every time it looks like we're headed into the ...

CurtisM CurtisM SPY, D,
SPY: SPY/$SPX Daily with PVT: 04/17/2014
232 2 5
SPY, D
SPY/$SPX Daily with PVT: 04/17/2014

Simple chart for you to set up and watch. Using SPY as a proxy for $SPX. Notes on chart. Sorry about the double post. The other didn't show up yesterday when I first posted it though I see now that it has. If a Mod wants to remove one, that's fine with me.

CurtisM CurtisM SPX, D,
SPX: $SPX Daily, 04/17/2014: Bearish Rising Wedge Negated Soon?
260 0 4
SPX, D
$SPX Daily, 04/17/2014: Bearish Rising Wedge Negated Soon?

After finding support at the lower channel line, $SPX had a nice rally last week, gaining almost 50pts. $SPX is now down about 8pts on the month and, based on last week's rally and expected follow through in the week ahead, it does appear that $SPX will rise above the bearish rising wedge, negating it, and then push on to or above the recent swing high at 1897. ...

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