CurtisM

$SPX with PPO

INDEX:SPX   S&P 500 Index
336 6 4
Here is an updated chart of $SPX             with PPO set to mimic the 250EMA.

As always with this chart, I am looking for signs of negative divergence between price and $SPX's 250EMA. At the moment we do have slight or local negative divergence between price and the 250EMA and while this is the way declines usually begin I'm not so sure we're getting ready for a decline at the moment. The reason I don't think we're on the verge of a pullback of one degree or another is the fact that the last two declines began after a slight pull back followed by double top-type action with very clear negative divergence.

I would have to say at this point that if history is of any value then we would need to see a pullback of from 3-5 days starting soon and followed by a new high that includes very clear negative divergence. If we don't get a set up like that, then I would have to consider the current negative divergence as just a wrinkle on the chart. However, we do have negative divergence and so this needs to be watched over the next 3-4 sessions to make sure this isn't more than a wrinkle.

Be careful and GL.
SimGlenn
2 years ago
I always consider both technical and fundamental analysis to make my investment decisions. The fundamentals will not provide clues of near term price movements, but they support a strong move higher over the intermediate term. With economic growth moderate (3-4%), the prospect for continued low inflation and hence low interest rates provides the perfect backdrop for corporate earnings growth. With earnings growth in the 8.9% range, and margins near 9.5%, the SPX should see 7-10% gains next year. the SPX should test 2250 next year and 2500 in 2016.
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CurtisM SimGlenn
2 years ago
Hi Glenn, let's see how this goes over the next few sessions. Last year right about now we had a 40pt pull back and then we were off to the races again. If this current negative divergence should prove predictive, then I would be looking for something like that. Nothing major.
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stockSMASH
2 years ago
Hello CurtisM! glad to hear from you. Thank you for the analysis. tomorrow DOWN day. betcha under 2625 ... 2100 tested. watch transports! that and JNK... We all look forward to your continued views as the year ends.
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CurtisM stockSMASH
2 years ago
stockSMASH, good to hear from you. transports have been extremely overbought and have not made a new high along with Dow. Could mean nothing or could be the canary in the coal mine. Just have to see how it goes over the next few sessions.
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stockSMASH
2 years ago
Gotcha I meant that in the coming days/weeks spx under 2625 down to 2100 not all in one day LOL whoooooop wouldnt that raise some eyebrows! I hope you are well and taking care of yourself.
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jdouce03
2 years ago
Advance/Decline line is also tipping us off IMO, possible sign of an exhausted bull...
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