I was just finishing this chart to post - with QQQ around 367.50 - and Mr. Brainard started speaking and the market reacted in a flash. Good thing is that you can wait for a bounce and still enter swing puts.
I was posting the swing entry based on the 200sma at 269.30, and it was perfect (yesterday) because high was 269.31. Sometimes I get curious about Fib levels so decided to draw one on QQQ, and of course it is accurate again. Price came right up to that 61.8 level last week.
I did not buy puts then because, as you can see in the stochastic below, %D was still over 80. Usually when %K makes a first dip below %D, it comes back up and then down again, and this starts pulling %D down below 80. This may happen multiple times in a strong trend, in which %D remains above 80 or below 20 for an extended time.
Another signal to enter swing puts was found on RSI. After dipping below 33.33, a strong rally moved it over 50. I would expect it to stall and turn down either below 65 or below 66.66 (usually) and this is what happened. So buying swing puts when RSI is near this bear resistance (after RSI has dipped below 33.33) usually gives a successful trade... when in sync with other indicators.
I was posting the swing entry based on the 200sma at 269.30, and it was perfect (yesterday) because high was 269.31. Sometimes I get curious about Fib levels so decided to draw one on QQQ, and of course it is accurate again. Price came right up to that 61.8 level last week.
I did not buy puts then because, as you can see in the stochastic below, %D was still over 80. Usually when %K makes a first dip below %D, it comes back up and then down again, and this starts pulling %D down below 80. This may happen multiple times in a strong trend, in which %D remains above 80 or below 20 for an extended time.
Another signal to enter swing puts was found on RSI. After dipping below 33.33, a strong rally moved it over 50. I would expect it to stall and turn down either below 65 or below 66.66 (usually) and this is what happened. So buying swing puts when RSI is near this bear resistance (after RSI has dipped below 33.33) usually gives a successful trade... when in sync with other indicators.
Since weekly RSI(14 day) moved below 33.33 by the end of the March downturn, I expect there will be more selling. I continue using daily and 30min charts to look for swing entries and monitor swing trades.