Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)

Analysis Techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)
Date: October 23, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: ICEEU XRX25

1. Trend Overview and Price Structure

November 2025 Robusta coffee futures surged +2.70% to USD 4,750/ton, marking a clear breakout from a descending triangle accumulation pattern that had persisted since September.
This session confirms a technical breakout, lifting prices above the key 4,700 resistance zone and opening the path toward a medium-term upside target of 5,300–5,560 USD/ton.

The short-term trend has shifted decisively from consolidation to bullish continuation, supported by a stable higher-lows structure established since August 2025.

2. Key Technical Price Levels

Resistance: 4,986 – 5,300 – 5,561
Support: 4,303 – 4,050 – 3,696

3. Detailed Technical Analysis

(1) Short-Term Trend:
After consolidating between 4,300–4,500, Robusta broke above its descending trendline, confirming a bullish reversal.
The measured move projection, based on the triangle’s height (~USD 930), suggests a potential advance toward 5,550 USD/ton, equivalent to a 20% price increase.

(2) Trading Volume:
Volume expanded sharply during the breakout sessions, signaling renewed participation from both speculative and commercial traders after a prolonged Q3 correction.

(3) Wave Structure:
According to Elliott Wave Theory, prices are progressing within wave (3) of a bullish cycle, targeting 5,300–5,560 USD, where a confluence exists between the April swing high and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension zone.
A breakout above 5,560 would confirm further upside potential toward 5,800–6,000 USD in Q4 2025.

(4) Confirmation Signals:
Breakout above the descending trendline from June.
Strong bullish candles closing above the entire short-term resistance range.
Momentum and volume confirm active buying pressure (bullish momentum).

4. Strategic View – Bloomberg Intelligence

According to VNC, Robusta’s sharp recovery in the second half of October is driven by a combination of three key factors:
1. Tight Supply from Vietnam and Indonesia:
ICE Europe reported Robusta inventories falling to their lowest level since 2016.
Vietnam’s September exports dropped over 20% year-on-year, as farmers delayed sales in anticipation of higher prices.
2. Steady Demand from Europe and the U.S.:
European roasters have increased stockpiling ahead of the year-end consumption season.
The strengthening euro against the dollar has improved purchasing power for European buyers.
3. Spillover from the Arabica Market:
Arabica prices have rallied above 410 cents/lb, creating a positive contagion effect across the broader coffee complex.
The Arabica/Robusta price ratio (A/R spread) has normalized around 1.35x, allowing further upside in Robusta without triggering substitution pressures.
VNC notes that the 4,300–4,500 zone now serves as a solid price base, with 5,300–5,560 as an achievable target for November—provided the Brazilian real remains stable and speculative inflows continue.

5. Suggested Technical Strategies

Primary Long Scenario (Trend-Following):
Entry: 4,650 – 4,720
TP1: 5,300
TP2: 5,560
SL: 4,460
Probability: 75%
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:3

Alternative Short Scenario (Rejection at High Resistance):
Entry: 5,550 – 5,600
TP: 4,950
SL: 5,720
Probability: 25%
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2

6. Corporate Hedging Strategies

For Coffee Exporters:
Increase forward sales coverage in the 4,750–5,000 zone as global prices have strongly recovered and the domestic basis has narrowed.
Consider partial hedging for December–January delivery contracts to protect profit margins.
For Importers (Roasters & FMCG Companies):
Consider partial hedging on dips near 4,400–4,500, focusing on Q1 2026 deliveries, to secure supply amid continued market volatility.

For Commercial Investors:
Maintain medium-term long positions targeting 5,300–5,560.
A confirmed break above 5,560 could justify expanding long exposure toward 5,800–6,000 USD.