- Price is almost at 5 years low, trading below Kumo and below Kijun Sen, but within a tightenning triangle. The weekly Kumo is thin with a flat future Senkou B line at 15,90. Tenkan and Kijun stay ard same level. Chikou Span gets close to Price candles, lost open space, which means unless Price breaks the triangle on the lower side and continues the , it may hit the candles soon and then Sugar will either consolidate further or will be forced to reverse the trend.
- Heiken Ashi candle is , haDelta back below SMA3 and zero line. ( pls note that this week has just started, this can change until Friday)
- Weekly resistances at 14,30 and 13,65
- Heiken Ashi paints a picture with red candles and haDelta, Oscillator.
- setup however is rather neutral, as Price is swinging around 15,25 shorter equilibrium, Chikou Span is exactly at Price candles, Tenkan points down but is still above Kijun Sen, future Kumo shows neutral picture too.
- For bearih extension Price should break below 14,20, for reversal 16,00-16,10 top side is the key.
As you see right now the big picture is still , but it is really time to put Suga on the radar, as in case the lower supp/res levels hold for the next few weeks, we can not exclude the chance of a sharp reversal later.
16,10 is the most important level to watch! A break above that would mean a reversal (trend break and Kumo breakout) both on the weekly and the at the same time!
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I am becoming more bearish for SB as the possible B wave (see chart attached) has retraced too much in order to be seen as a possible wave 2. In this sense, I agree with you that true bullish reversal can only occur when/if prices break the 16’s.
The possible upward movement that most indicators are showing could be, in my opinion, a wave C under development, thus nothing major (again, unless it breaks the 16.00)
With prices getting below 14.20 level, we would be indeed seeing the continuation of the previous downtrend.
My advice to build a long position would be (as you observed) buying only when/if above the 16’s. Lets keep on the radar then.