Sugar - Gummy bear. But how long will it be sweet?

ICEUSA:SB1!   Sugar #11
59 1 3
Sugar             is one really sensitive commodity, which sometimes makes huge swings and counter trends within a major cycle, some other times goes fully in one direction. Right now it is bearish , but I see some tighter Price action, which makes me feel excited and think about for how long the bears will feel the short position sweet enough to hold.

- Price is almost at 5 years low, trading below Kumo and below Kijun Sen, but within a tightenning triangle. The weekly Kumo is thin with a flat future Senkou B line at 15,90. Tenkan and Kijun stay ard             same level. Chikou Span gets close to Price candles, lost open space, which means unless Price breaks the triangle on the lower side and continues the bearish trend , it may hit the candles soon and then Sugar             will either consolidate further or will be forced to reverse the trend.
- Heiken Ashi candle is bearish , haDelta back below SMA3 and zero line. ( pls             note that this week has just started, this can change until Friday)
- Weekly bearish resistances at 14,30 and 13,65

- Heiken Ashi paints a bearish picture with red candles and bearish haDelta, bearish Oscillator.
- Ichimoku setup however is rather neutral, as Price is swinging around 15,25 shorter equilibrium, Chikou Span is exactly at Price candles, Tenkan points down but is still above Kijun Sen, future Kumo shows neutral picture too.
- For bearih extension Price should break below 14,20, for bullish reversal 16,00-16,10 top side is the key.

As you see right now the big picture is still bearish , but it is really time to put Suga on the radar, as in case the lower supp/res levels hold for the next few weeks, we can not exclude the chance of a sharp bullish reversal later.

16,10 is the most important level to watch! A break above that would mean a bullish reversal (trend break and Kumo breakout) both on the weekly and the daily charts at the same time!
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Great chart, as usual.

I am becoming more bearish for SB as the possible B wave (see chart attached) has retraced too much in order to be seen as a possible wave 2. In this sense, I agree with you that true bullish reversal can only occur when/if prices break the 16’s.

The possible upward movement that most indicators are showing could be, in my opinion, a wave C under development, thus nothing major (again, unless it breaks the 16.00)

With prices getting below 14.20 level, we would be indeed seeing the continuation of the previous downtrend.

My advice to build a long position would be (as you observed) buying only when/if above the 16’s. Lets keep on the radar then.
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