Stop Loss: 93
Take Profit 1: 135
Take Profit 2: 145
Reward/Risk: 2.5:1 & 3.33:1
Using a modified Schiff Pitchfork on the most recent major swings high-low-high calculate the center point of the swings. Price will comes back to the center line 80% of the time. Using this median calculation, further levels of support/resistance can be illustrated. What I did to find the buy target was:
- observe that price is in the bottom, blue zone of the Pitchfork, the ideal buying place if we get strong confirmation of a trend reversal (the trend is down).
- moving up levels above price, light blue, trace it down to where price was in this zone previously and see how price reacted. This area acted as support, more so, a spring board. So buying at this level would be a good thing theoretically, but we have to account for the rule of Change of Polarity . When price falls below what once was support, it becomes resistance, and vice versa. Light blue is resistance, we don't want to set a buy order at resistance - that would be Buying at the Top - which we love to do right? What we want to do is break above this resistance, to turquoise. Trace it down to where the price was lower on the chart when it was in turquoise... when price traversed light blue and then turquoise, it caused a breakout and buying at high volume. So buy at turquoise right? Not yet, why buy at the top, right? Look how price acts at the top of the turquoise range... boing boing boing support and zooom! So if we set our buy order right up there we should catch what? Catch the price when we have the highest probability of buying at the right time, and at the lowest price. We want to buy in the direction of the price going up, after it for sure stops going down. ...
^ History tells us what everyone thought of the price at that level, the confidence, the greed, the fear... We trace that sentiment in the direction of the Pitchfork and get relative sentiment estimations today, based on what happened before. Thus, 105 Satoshi. Also, and this is important in my decision: whole numbers matter, psychologically. People are more likely to react to price getting to 100 than they are to it going to 67 right? Well think about 105. 100 people felt like, "Yeah, good place to buy, probably support." People are also nervous, "What if the price goes down...", at 105 people are thinking, "Hey nice!" So, 105 it is... another thing... and this is THE MOST IMPORTANT THING: I calculated the risk:reward from the stop-loss level which I set. What's the point of buying at 105 if 120 is resistance and 70 is support. Bad risk reward. Notice that 94 was strong support, the stop-loss is set one tick below that. I calculated the risk:reward from there to my targets... more more more information... I'll stop here.